E-Book Overview
The amount of information forensic scientists are able to offer is ever increasing, owing to vast developments in science and technology. Consequently, the complexity of evidence does not allow scientists to cope adequately with the problems it causes, or to make the required inferences. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, specifically Bayesian networks, offers a powerful tool to deal with this complexity, and discover valid patterns in data. Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian networks for the evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. - Includes self-contained introductions to both Bayesian networks and probability.
- Features implementation of the methodology using HUGIN, the leading Bayesian networks software.
- Presents basic standard networks that can be implemented in commercially and academically available software packages, and that form the core models necessary for the reader’s own analysis of real cases.
- Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing uncertain data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning.
- Contains a method for constructing coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of forensic evidence.
- Written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists with minimal mathematical background.
- Includes a foreword by David Schum.
The clear and accessible style makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists and applied statisticians working in evidence evaluation, as well as graduate students in these areas. It will also appeal to scientists, lawyers and other professionals interested in the evaluation of forensic evidence and/or Bayesian networks.
E-Book Content
Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Science Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Science F. Taroni, C. Aitken, P. Garbolino and A. Biedermann 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd ISBN: 0-470-09173-8 Statistics in Practice Founding Editor Vic Barnett Nottingham Trent University, UK Statistics in Practice is an important international series of texts, which provide detailed coverage of statistical concepts, methods and worked case studies in specific fields of investigation and study. With sound motivation and many worked practical examples, the books show in downto-earth terms how to select and use an appropriate range of statistical techniques in a particular practical field within each title’s special topic area. The books provide statistical support for professionals and research workers across a range of employment fields and research environments. The subject areas covered include medicine and pharmaceutics; industry, finance and commerce; public services; the earth and environmental sciences, and so on. The books also provide support to students studying statistical courses applied to the above areas. The demand for graduates to be equipped for the work environment has led to such courses becoming increasingly prevalent at universities and colleges. It is our aim to present judiciously chosen and well-written workbooks to meet everyday practical needs. The feedback of views from readers will be most valuable to monitor the success of this aim. A complete list of titles in this series appears at the end of the volume. Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Science Franco Taroni University of Lausanne, Switzerland Colin Aitken University of Edinburgh, UK Paolo Garbolino IUAV University, Venice, Italy Alex Biedermann University of Lausanne and Federal Office of Police, Berne, Switzerland Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, E