Innovation: The Attackers Advantage.

Boston Gillet .'."-. Gillette; B r» ton , Viboratory A-rrir Ni/ 1 g .- , 'y?.! 1X3 Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2010 http://www.archive.org/details/innovationattackOOfost INNO SUMMIT BOOKS NEW YORK VATION THE ATTACKER'S ADVANTAGE hoston KS.I5 Laboratory Giile'-t& Co. Boston, Jrta-s. Richard N. Foster Copyright © 1986 by McKinsey & Co., Inc. All rights reserved including the right of reproduction in whole or in part in Published by any form SUMMIT BOOKS Division of Simon & Schuster, Simon & Schuster Building 1230 Avenue of the Americas New York, New York 10020 A SUMMIT BOOKS of Simon Inc. and colophon are trademarks & Schuster, Inc. Designed by Barbara Marks Manufactured 10 in the United States of America 987654321 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Foster, Richard Innovation : N. the attacker's advantage. Bibliography: p. 1. Technological innovations 2. Research, Industrial HD45.F67 — Management. — Management. 658.4'062 1986 ISBN: 0-671-62250-1 I. Title. 86-1945 To my advisors, friends Lucien and and Doug sons: CONTENTS Acknowledgments Foreword by Robert H, Waterman, Preface Why One Two Three Leaders Six Seven 1 Become Losers 25 45 New Leaders 59 Forecasting Tool become Losers The Defender's Dilemma 1 1 The Attacker's Advantage Phoenix: Leaders Nine Ten I beyond the 1 1 65 1 Stay Leaders Leading Metamorphosis Epilogue Appendix Who 87 37 Counterattack: The best Defense Eight Limits 85 111 239 249 Are You Doing the Fundamentals? 263 Assessing the Threat (Drawing an S-Curve) Appendix 2 Appendix 1 Lessons from the Umitists How Five Jr. The Age of Discontinuity The S-Curve: A Four 9 3 Timing the Attack (The Yield Analysis) Bibliography Index 301 287 269 279 Acknowledgments The research and consulting condensed in this book represents many years of productive collaboration with my and my colleagues in McKinsey & Company. McKinsey works with some of the largest and most successful companies in the United States, Japan and Europe. These companies have sophisticated managers who often must invent new ways to solve new problems. Many of them are concerned with technology. Both directly and through my partners I was able to work on these problems and in the process test the ideas in this book. That would not have been possible without their trust and confidence in me and my clients colleagues and their willingness to break A new ground. McKinsey deserve special mention. First and foremost is my mentor, teacher and friend, Fred Gluck. Fred and I have worked together on the problems of technology and strategy for over a decade. He has always been the most creative, insightful and yet rigorous thinke