“I know of no one who combines theory and observation—intellectual rigor and painstaking observation of the real world— so brilliantly and gracefully as Gary Klein.” Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers and Blink
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Streetlights and Shadows
Streetlights and Shadows Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making
Gary Klein
A Bradford Book The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England
( 2009 Massachusetts Institute of Technology All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher. MIT Press books may be purchased at special quantity discounts for business or sales promotional use. For information, email
[email protected] or write to Special Sales Department, MIT Press, 55 Hayward Street, Cambridge, MA 02142. Set in Palatino on 3B2 by Asco Typesetters, Hong Kong. Printed and bound in the United States of America. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Klein, Gary Streetlights and shadows : searching for the keys to adaptive decision making / Gary Klein. p. cm. ‘‘A Bradford Book.’’ Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-262-01339-0 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Decision making. 2. Problem solving. I. Title. BF448.K54 2009 153.8'3—dc22 2009007501 10 9 8
7 6 5
4 3 2 1
to Helen, Devorah, and Rebecca
Contents
List of Examples
ix
1
Ten Surprises about How We Handle Ambiguous Situations 1
Part I
Making Decisions
2
A Passion for Procedures
3
Seeing the Invisible
4
How Biased Is Our Thinking?
5
Intuition versus Analysis
6
Blending Intuition and Analysis to Make Rapid Decisions 83
7
Experts and Errors
8
Automating Decisions
Part II
Making Sense of Situations
9
More Is Less
10
When Patience Is a Vice
147
11
The Limits of Feedback
165
12
Correcting the Dots
13
Do We Think Like Computers?
13 15
33 49
67
101 115 127
129
177 199
viii
Contents
205
Part III
Adapting
14
Moving Targets
15
The Risks of Risk Management
16
The Cognitive Wavelength
17
Unlearning
Part IV
Finishing
18
Reclaiming Our Minds
19
Getting Found
Acknowledgments Notes 305 Bibliography 319 Index 335
207
269 283
303
295
285
251
229
List of Examples
2.1:
A flying brick
19
2.2:
The hijack procedures
2.3:
The high road and the low road
2.4:
The bubble
3.1:
Sailsmanship
3.2:
The fall guy
3.3:
Catching criminals while they are sleeping
3.4:
Tracking the customers
3.5:
Detection work
3.6:
The hidden hotel
4.1:
How to lie to your toaster
4.2: