“I know of no one who combines theory and observation—intellectual rigor and painstaking observation of the real world— so brilliantly and gracefully as Gary Klein.” Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers and Blink HBSZ!LMFJO Tusffumjhiut!boe! Tibepxt Tfbsdijoh!gps!uif!Lfzt! up!Bebqujwf! Efdjtjpo!Nbljoh Streetlights and Shadows Streetlights and Shadows Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making Gary Klein A Bradford Book The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England ( 2009 Massachusetts Institute of Technology All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher. MIT Press books may be purchased at special quantity discounts for business or sales promotional use. For information, email
[email protected] or write to Special Sales Department, MIT Press, 55 Hayward Street, Cambridge, MA 02142. Set in Palatino on 3B2 by Asco Typesetters, Hong Kong. Printed and bound in the United States of America. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Klein, Gary Streetlights and shadows : searching for the keys to adaptive decision making / Gary Klein. p. cm. ‘‘A Bradford Book.’’ Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-262-01339-0 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Decision making. 2. Problem solving. I. Title. BF448.K54 2009 153.8'3—dc22 2009007501 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 to Helen, Devorah, and Rebecca Contents List of Examples ix 1 Ten Surprises about How We Handle Ambiguous Situations 1 Part I Making Decisions 2 A Passion for Procedures 3 Seeing the Invisible 4 How Biased Is Our Thinking? 5 Intuition versus Analysis 6 Blending Intuition and Analysis to Make Rapid Decisions 83 7 Experts and Errors 8 Automating Decisions Part II Making Sense of Situations 9 More Is Less 10 When Patience Is a Vice 147 11 The Limits of Feedback 165 12 Correcting the Dots 13 Do We Think Like Computers? 13 15 33 49 67 101 115 127 129 177 199 viii Contents 205 Part III Adapting 14 Moving Targets 15 The Risks of Risk Management 16 The Cognitive Wavelength 17 Unlearning Part IV Finishing 18 Reclaiming Our Minds 19 Getting Found Acknowledgments Notes 305 Bibliography 319 Index 335 207 269 283 303 295 285 251 229 List of Examples 2.1: A flying brick 19 2.2: The hijack procedures 2.3: The high road and the low road 2.4: The bubble 3.1: Sailsmanship 3.2: The fall guy 3.3: Catching criminals while they are sleeping 3.4: Tracking the customers 3.5: Detection work 3.6: The hidden hotel 4.1: How to lie to your toaster 4.2: