Weather Cycles: Real Or Imaginary?

This page intentionally left blank Weather Cycles Second edition This completely updated new edition of Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary? explores in detail the unresolved debate on the existence of weather cycles. The book examines the competing arguments for observed effects being due to natural variability, solar activity and the Earth’s orbital parameters. A wide range of events are presented, from ice ages to various ˜ and other examples of apparently cyclic oscillations, including El Nino, behaviour, drawing on instrumental observations and other records such as tree rings, ice cores, ocean sediments, corals and stalagmites. The book provides the basic statistical analysis and climatic theories of non-linear systems (chaos theory) to assess the data. The conclusion is that, with few exceptions, the case for weather cycles is not proven, but that an appreciation of the apparently periodic nature of climatic fluctuations is essential in understanding contemporary changes in the Earth’s climate. Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary? provides a different perspective on one of the most difficult questions in the current global warming debate: namely, just how much of the recent temperature rise can be attributed to natural causes? Only by understanding how the climate can change of its own accord, and whether observed shifts are part of a set of predictable patterns, will it be possible to reach a reliable judgement on how much impact human activities are having. This book examines the complex analysis required to assess the evidence for cycles with a minimum of mathematics. This comprehensive and balanced account will appeal to the student and expert alike. After 7 years at the UK National Physical Laboratory researching atmospheric physics, Bill Burroughs spent 3 years as a UK Scientific Attach´e in Washington DC. Between 1974 and 1995, he held a series of senior posts in the UK Departments of Energy and then Health. He is now a professional science writer and has published several books on various aspects of weather and climate (two as a co-author), and three books for children on lasers. These books include Watching the World’s Weather (1991), Weather Cycles (1992), Does the Weather Really Matter? (1997), The Climate Revealed (1999), and Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach (2001), all with Cambridge University Press. In addition, he acted as lead author for the World Meteorological Organization on a book entitled Climate: Into the Twenty-First Century. He has also written widely on the weather and climate in newspapers and popular magazines. Weather Cycles Real or Imaginary? (Second edition) William James Burroughs    Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge  , United Kingdom Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521820844 © William James Burroughs 2003 This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published in print format 2003 - - ---- eBook