E-Book Overview
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting..With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
E-Book Content
Business Cycles
Studies in Business Cycles Volume 27
National Bureau of Economic Research Conference on Research in Business Cycles
Business Cycles Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting
Victor Zamowitz
The University of Chicago Press
Chicago and London
The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 1992 by The University of Chicago All rights reserved. Published 1992 Paperback edition 1996 Printed in the United States of America 01 00 99 98 97 96
23456
ISBN (cloth): 0-226-97890-7 ISBN (paper): 0-226-97891-5
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Zamowitz, Victor Business cycles: theory, history, indicators, and forecasting/ Victor Zamowitz. p. cm.-(A National Bureau of Economic Research monograph) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Business cycles. 2. Economic forecasting. I. Title. II. Series. HB3711.Z37 1992 91-43392 338.5'42-dc20 CIP
§ The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences-Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1984.
National Bureau of Economic Research Officers George T. Conklin, Jr., chairman Paul W. McCracken, vice chairman Martin Feldstein, president and chief executive officer
Geoffrey Carliner, executive director Charles A. Walworth, treasurer Sam Parker, director offinance and administration
Directors at Large John H. Biggs Andrew Brimmer Carl F. Christ George T. Conklin, Jr. Kathleen B. Cooper Jean A. Crockett George C. Eads Morton Ehrlich
Martin Feldstein George Hatsopoulos Lawrence R. Klein Franklin A. Lindsay Paul W. McCracken Leo Melamed Michael H. Moskow James J. O'Leary
Robert T. Parry Peter G. Peterson Robert V. Roosa Richard N. Rosett Bert Seidman Eli Shapiro Donald S. Wasserman
Directors by University Appointment Jagdish Bhagwati, Columbia William C. Brainard, Yale Glen G. Cain, Wisconsin Franklin Fisher, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Jonathan Hughes, Northwestern Saul H. Hymans, Michigan Marjorie B. McElroy, Duke
James L. Pierce, California, Berkeley Andrew Postlewaite, Pennsylvania Nathan Rosenberg, Stanford Harold T. Shapiro, Princeton Craig Swan, Minnesota Michael Yoshino, Harvard Arnold Zellner, Chicago
Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations Rueben C. Buse, American Agricultural Economics Association Richard A. Easterlin, Economic History Association Gail Fosler, The Conference Board A. Ronald Gallant, American Statistical Association Robert S. Hamada, American Finance Association David Kendrick, American Economic Association
Ben E. Laden, National Association of Business Economists Rudolph A. Oswald, American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations Dean P. Phypers, Committee for Economic Development Douglas D. Purvis, Canadian Economics Association Charles A. Walworth, American Institute of Certified Public Accountant