Karl Popper And The Social Sciences (s U N Y Series In The Philosophy Of The Social Sciences)

and the SOCIAL SCIENCES karl POPPER William A. Gorton KARL POPPER and the SOCIAL SCIENCES SUNY series in the Philosophy of the Social Sciences Lenore Langsdorf, editor W I L L I A M A . G O RTO N KARL POPPER and the SOCIAL SCIENCES STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK PRESS Published by State University of New York Press Albany © 2006 State University of New York All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission. No part of this book may be stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means including electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior permission in writing of the publisher. For information, address State University of New York Press 194 Washington Avenue, Suite 305, Albany, NY 12210-2384 Production, Laurie Searl Marketing, Michael Campochiaro Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Gorton, William A., 1966– Karl Popper and the social sciences / William A. Gorton. p. cm. -- (SUNY series in the philosophy of the social sciences) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-10: 0-7914-6661-2 (alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-7914-6662-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Popper, Karl Raimund, Sir, 1902– 2. Social sciences--Methodology. 3. Social sciences--Philosophy. 4. Political science. 5. Economics. I. Title. II. Series. H61.G593 2006 300'.92--dc22 2005007691 ISBN-13: 978-0-7914-6661-2 (alk. paper) ISBN-13: 978-0-7914-6662-9 (pbk. : alk. paper) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 For my mother and my father This page intentionally left blank. Contents Acknowledgments ix Abbreviations xi Introduction 1 Chapter One Popperian Situational Analysis Building Models Against Psychologism and Conspiracy Theories Methodological Individualism Summary 5 6 11 15 21 Chapter Two Metaphysics, Realism, and Situational Analysis 23 The Vienna Circle’s Positivism Verificationism, Empiricism, and Metaphysics Popper’s Metaphysical and Scientific Realism Realism, World 3, and Social Inquiry Summary 24 25 29 32 40 Chapter Three Social Laws, the Unity of Scientific Method, and Situational Analysis 41 Causation, Covering Laws, and Realism The Unity of Scientific Method Falsification and Situational Analysis Summary 41 52 53 58 Chapter Four Situational Analysis and Economic Theory 59 Rationality and Economic Theory vii 62 viii CONTENTS Situational Analysis and Economic Theory Explaining Voter Turnout: Rational Choice versus Situational Analysis Untangling Complex Patterns of Interaction Summary Chapter Five Popper’s Debt to Marx Popper’s Critique of Marx Popper’s Debt to Marx Popper and the Analytical Marxists Summary Chapter Six The Shortcomings of Situational Analysis The Limited Range of Situational Analysis Irrationality and Situational Analysis Elster’s Model of Revolutions Summary 65 72 76 79 81 82 90 94 98 99 100 103 113 119 Conclusion 121 Notes 123 References 133 Index 141 Acknowledgments I owe a debt of gratitude to a number of people who have commented on parts of this manuscript during its development, especially James Farr and Terence Ball. I am also grateful to Jane Bunker at SUNY Press fo