E-Book Overview
This book provides a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of firm size. It takes the reader through basic forecasting methodology, and then practical applications. All aspects of business forecasting are discussed making this book a comprehensive, valuable reference.What is unique about this book is threefold. First, this book is practically oriented. It avoids theoretical, rigorous, and mathematical discussions. It gets directly into how to use it, when to use, what it is used for, and what resources are required of it. Secondly, it incorporates the use of computer and information technology. Thirdly, the book goes much beyond just sales forecasting. It encompasses a wide range of topics of major importance to practical business managers, including economic forecasting, cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, and much more.
E-Book Content
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Strategic Business Forecasting
FORECASTING lncluding Business Forecasting Tools and Applications Dr Jae K Shim Professor of Business Administration, California State University, Long Beach and CEO, Delta Consulting Company
professional publishing
O Global Professional Publishing 2009
Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publisher, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be addressed to the publisher. The address is below:
Global Professional Publishing Random Acres Slip Mill Lane Hawkhurst Cranbrook Kent
Global Professional Publishing believes that the sources of information upon which the book is based are reliable, and has made every effort to ensure the complete accuracy of the text. However, neither Global Professional Publishing, the authors nor any contributors can accept any legal responsibility whatsoever for consequences that may arise from errors or omissions or any opinion or advice given.
ISBN 978- 1-906403-47-8
Printed by IBT
For full details of Global Professional Publishingtitles in Finance and Banking see our website at: www.gppbooks.com
Contents
Preface
xiii
Acknowledgments
xiv
Part I
Introduction
Chapter I
Forecasting and Managerial Planning
Who Uses Forecasts? Types of Forecasts Sales Forecasts Economic Forecasts Financial Forecasts Technological Forecasts Forecasts for Supply Chain Management
Forecasting Methods Selection of Forecasting Method The Qualitative Approach Executive Opinions The Delphi Method Sales-Force Polling Consumer Surveys
A Word of Caution Common Features and Assumptions Inherent in Forecasting Steps in the Forecasting Process
Strategic Business Forecasting
Chapter 2
Forecasting, Budgeting, and Business Valuation
The Sales Budget The Production Budget The Direct Material Budget The Direct Labor Budget The Factory Overhead Budget The Selling and Administration Budget The Budgeted Income Statement The Cash Budget The Budgeted Balance Sheet Company-Wide and Departmental Budgets "What-If" Scenarios And Computer Simulation Using an Electronic Spreadsheet to Develop a Budget Plan Forecasting and business valuation Conclusion