Outsmarting The Terrorists (global Crime And Justice)

Outsmarting the Terrorists Ronald V. Clarke Graeme R. Newman PRAEGER SECURITY INTERNATIONAL Outsmarting the Terrorists PRAEGER SECURITY INTERNATIONAL ADVISORY BOARD Board Cochairs Loch K. Johnson, Regents Professor of Public and International Affairs, School of Public and International Affairs, University of Georgia (United States) Paul Wilkinson, Professor of International Relations and Chairman of the Advisory Board, Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St. Andrews (United Kingdom) Members Eliot A. Cohen, Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies and Director, Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University (United States) Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies (United States) Therese Delpech, Senior Research Fellow, CERI (Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches Internationales, Atomic Energy Commission), Paris (France) Sir Michael Howard, former Professor of History of War, Oxford University, and Professor of Military and Naval History, Yale University (United Kingdom) Lieutenant General Claudia J. Kennedy, U.S. Army (Ret.), former Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Headquarters, Department of the Army (United States) Paul M. Kennedy, J. Richardson Dilworth Professor of History and Director, International Security Studies, Yale University (United States) Robert J. O’Neill, former Chichele Professor of the History of War, All Souls College, Oxford University (Australia) Shibley Telhami, Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development, Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland (United States) Jusuf Wanandi, Cofounder and Member, Board of Trustees, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (Indonesia) Fareed Zakaria, Editor, Newsweek International (United States) OUTSMARTING THE TERRORISTS RONALD V. CLARKE GRAEME R. NEWMAN Global Crime and Justice PRAEGER SECURITY INTERNATIONAL Westport, Connecticut  London Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Clarke, R. V. G. Outsmarting the terrorists / Ronald V. Clarke and Graeme R. Newman. p. cm. — (Global crime and justice, ISSN 1931-7239) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-275-99230-6 (alk. paper) 1. Terrorism—Prevention. 2. Terrorism—United States—Prevention. 3. Terrorism—Government policy—United States. 4. National security— United States. 5. War on Terrorism, 2001– 6. Security, International. I. Newman, Graeme R. II. Title. HV6431.C475 2006 2006021060 363.3250 160973—dc22 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data is available. Copyright ' 2006 by Ronald V. Clarke and Graeme R. Newman All rights reserved. No portion of this book may be reproduced, by any process or technique, without the express written consent of the publisher. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 2006021060 ISBN : 0-275-99230-6 ISSN : 1931-7239 First published in 2006 Praeger Security International, 88 Post Road West, Westport, CT 06881 An imprint of Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc. www.praeger.com Printed in the United States of America The paper used in this book complies with the Permanent Paper Standard issued by the National Information Standards Organization (Z39.48–1984). 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Contents Preface 1. The Gap in Our Defenses vii 1 Part I. Analyzing Our Vulnerabilities 2. Think Terrorist 19 3. The Key Role of Opportunity 31 4. Airliner Hijackings: The Lessons of Reducing Opportunity 41 5. Suicide Bombings, Step by Step 53 6. Dynamics of Terrorist Decisions 70 Part II. The Opportunity Structure of Terroris