WBGU German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) Climate Protection Strategies for the 21st Century: Kyoto and beyond Special Report H. Graßl J. Kokott M. Kulessa J. Luther F. Nuscheler R. Sauerborn H.-J. Schellnhuber R. Schubert E.-D. Schulze Members of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (as on 10. November 2003) Prof Dr Hartmut Graßl (chair) Director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg Prof Dr Renate Schubert (vice chair) Director of the Center for Economic Research at the ETH Zurich, Switzerland Prof Dr Dr Juliane Kokott (until 05.10.2003) Director of the Institute of European and International Business Law at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland Prof Dr Margareta Kulessa Professor at the University of Applied Sciences Mainz, Section Business Studies Prof Dr Joachim Luther Director of the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, Freiburg Prof Dr Franz Nuscheler Director of the Institute for Development and Peace, Duisburg Prof Dr Dr Rainer Sauerborn Medical Director of the Department of Tropical Hygiene and Public Health at the University of Heidelberg Prof Dr Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Research Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in Norwich, United Kingdom Prof Dr Ernst-Detlef Schulze Director at the Max Planck Institute of Biogeochemistry in Jena German Advisory Council on Global Change Climate Protection Strategies for the 21st Century: Kyoto and beyond Special Report Berlin 2003 ISBN 3-936191-04-2 Cover: Flashlight, clouds, rain forest (Pure Vision Photo Disc Deutschland), coral reef (Wunsch Media, Bremen), iceberg (Archiv AWI), windmill (Dr. C. Loose, WBGU) GERMAN ADVISORY COUNCIL ON GLOBAL CHANGE (WBGU) Secretariat Reichpietschufer 60–62, 8th floor D-10785 Berlin Phone Fax E-Mail Internet +49 (0) 30 263948 0 +49 (0) 30 263948 50
[email protected] http://www.wbgu.de Translation: Christopher Hay, Darmstadt Copy deadline: 10.11.2003 This special report is available through the Internet in German and English. © 2003, WBGU Acknowledgements This special report would not have been possible without the committed and untiring effort of the staff of the Council Members and the Council’s Secretariat in Berlin. The scientific team participating in the work of the Council when this report was written included: Prof Dr Meinhard Schulz-Baldes (WBGU Secretary-General), Dr Carsten Loose (WBGU Deputy Secretary-General), Dr Carsten Agert (Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, Freiburg), Anayo Fidelis Akunne, BA MPH (Department of Tropical Hygiene and Public Health of the University Heidelberg, from 01.05.2003), Dietrich Brockhagen, DEA ök. (WBGU Secretariat Berlin, until 31.07.2003), Dr Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter (WBGU Secretariat Berlin, until 31.10.2003), Dr Thomas Fues (Institute for Development and Peace, Duisburg), Dipl.Umweltwiss. Tim Hasler (WBGU Secretariat Berlin), Dipl.-Pol. Lena Kempmann (WBGU Secretariat Berlin), Dr Jacques Léonardi (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg), Referendarjur. Christian Lutze (MPI for Comparative Public Law and International Law, Heidelberg, until 05.10.2003), Dr Franziska Matthies (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, UK), Dr Nina V. Michaelis (WBGU Secretariat Berlin, from 01.07.2003), Dipl.-Volksw. Kristina Nienhaus (ETH Zürich/Akademie für Technikfolgenabschätzung in Baden-Württemberg, Stuttgart), Dr Benno Pilardeaux (WBGU Secretariat Berlin), Dipl.Volksw. Marc Ringel (University Mainz) and Dipl.Biol. Angelika Thuille (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena). The Council al