Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change

Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Editor in Chief Hans Joachim Schellnhuber Co-editors Wolfgang Cramer, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Tom Wigley, Gary Yohe CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521864718 © Cambridge University Press, 2006 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2006 Editorial project management by Frameworks www.frameworks-city.ltd.uk Typeset by Charon Tec Ltd, Chennai, India www.charontec.com Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN: 13 978-0-521-86471-8 hardback ISBN: 10 0-521-86471-2 hardback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. CONTENTS Foreword by Rt Hon Tony Blair, MP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Ministerial Address by Rt Hon Margaret Beckett, MP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi Acknowledgement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii SECTION I Key Vulnerabilities of the Climate System and Critical Thresholds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Rajendra Pachauri 2 An Overview of ‘Dangerous’ Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Stephen H. Schneider and Janica Lane 3 The Antarctic Ice Sheet and Sea Level Rise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Chris Rapley 4 The Role of Sea-Level Rise and the Greenland Ice Sheet in Dangerous Climate Change: Implications for the Stabilisation of Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Jason A. Lowe, Jonathan M. Gregory, Jeff Ridley, Philippe Huybrechts, Robert J. Nicholls and Matthew Collins 5 Assessing the Risk of a Collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Michael E. Schlesinger, Jianjun Yin, Gary Yohe, Natalia G. Andronova, Sergey Malyshev and Bin Li 6 Towards a Risk Assessment for Shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Richard Wood, Matthew Collins, Jonathan Gregory, Glen Harris and Michael Vellinga 7 Towards the Probability of Rapid Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Peter G. Challenor, Robin K.S. Hankin and Robert Marsh 8 Reviewing th