E-Book Content
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENTS IN TRANSPORT IN THE ESCAP REGION 2003 Asia and the Pacific United Nations New York, 2003 1 I ST/ESCAP/2307 1 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION I Sales No. E.04.II.F.26 I Copyright 0United Nations 2003 1 ISBN: 92- 1- 120380-5 ESCAP WORKS TOWARDS REDUCING POVERTY AND MANAGING GLOBALIZATION Copyright 0United Nations 2003 All rights reserved Manufactured in Thailand The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. On 1 July 1997, Hong Kong became Hong Kong, China. Mention of “Hong Kong” in the text refers to a date prior to 1 July 1997. On 20 December 1999, Macau became Macao, China. Mention of “Macau” in the text refers to a date prior to 20 December 1999. This document was prepared by ESCAP with assistance and consultancy inputs from Meyrick and Associates Pty Limited (www.meyrick.com.au). Most of the data shown in the tables containing selected infrastructure projects (tables VI.2, VII.3, VIII.3, X.2 and XIII.2) were provided by Thomson Project Finance International and Thomson SDC Platinum. The term “billion” signifies a thousand million. Unless otherwise stated, current United States dollars have been used throughout. This publication has been issued without formal editing. ... Contents 111 CONTENTS Page ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................................ ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. 1 PART ONE: THE CHALLENGE FOR TRANSPORT ............................................................ 17 I . I1. MEETING THE NEEDS OF TRADE ........................................................................... 19 A . Economic growth in the world ..................................................................................... B . Economic growth in the ESCAP region ....................................................................... C . Intraregional and interregional trends in merchandise trade ........................................ 19 19 22 MEETING THE NEED FOR PERSONAL MOBILITY ............................................ 27 World and regional population growth and distribution ............................................... Trends in urbanization .................................................................................................. Demographic change .................................................................................................... 27 29 32 MEETING THE NEEDS OF THE ENVIRONMENT ................................................ 35 A. B. C. D. 35 36 38 38 A. B. C. . 111 . IV . V Global impact of transport emissions ........................................................................... Air pollution ................................................................................................................. Noise pollution ............................................................................................................. The impact of t