RISK ASSESSMENT AS A BASIS FOR THE FORECAST AND PREVENTION OF CATASTROPHIES NATO Science for Peace and Security Series This Series presents the results of scientific meetings supported under the NATO Programme: Science for Peace and Security (SPS). The NATO SPS Programme supports meetings in the following Key Priority areas: (1) Defence Against Terrorism; (2) Countering other Threats to Security and (3) NATO, Partner and Mediterranean Dialogue Country Priorities. The types of meeting supported are generally “Advanced Study Institutes” and “Advanced Research Workshops”. The NATO SPS Series collects together the results of these meetings. The meetings are co-organized by scientists from NATO countries and scientists from NATO’s “Partner” or “Mediterranean Dialogue” countries. The observations and recommendations made at the meetings, as well as the contents of the volumes in the Series, reflect those of participants and contributors only; they should not necessarily be regarded as reflecting NATO views or policy. Advanced Study Institutes (ASI) are high-level tutorial courses to convey the latest developments in a subject to an advanced-level audience. Advanced Research Workshops (ARW) are expert meetings where an intense but informal exchange of views at the frontiers of a subject aims at identifying directions for future action. Following a transformation of the programme in 2006 the Series has been re-named and reorganised. Recent volumes on topics not related to security, which result from meetings supported under the programme earlier, may be found in the NATO Science Series. The Series is published by IOS Press, Amsterdam, and Springer Science and Business Media, Dordrecht, in conjunction with the NATO Public Diplomacy Division. Sub-Series A. B. C. D. E. Chemistry and Biology Physics and Biophysics Environmental Security Information and Communication Security Human and Societal Dynamics Springer Science and Business Media Springer Science and Business Media Springer Science and Business Media IOS Press IOS Press http://www.nato.int/science http://www.springer.com http://www.iospress.nl Sub-Series E: Human and Societal Dynamics – Vol. 35 ISSN 1874-6276 Risk Assessment as a Basis for the Forecast and Prevention of Catastrophies Edited by Ion Apostol Deputy Head of Civil Protection Inspectorate, Department of Emergency Situations, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova Wilhelm G. Coldewey Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster, Geologisch Paläontologisches Institut, Münster, Germany David L. Barry Director, DLB Environmental, Cranleigh, Surrey, United Kingdom and Dieter Reimer UWIK-CONSULTING, Bonn, Germany Amsterdam • Berlin • Oxford • Tokyo • Washington, DC Published in cooperation with NATO Public Diplomacy Division Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Risk Assessment as a Basis for Elaboration of Recommendations for Forecast and Prevention of Catastrophies Chisinau, Moldova 25–27 April 2007 © 2008 IOS Press. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior written permission from the publisher. ISBN 978-1-58603-844-1 Library of Congress Control Number: 2008922181 Publisher IOS Press Nieuwe Hemweg 6B 1013 BG Amsterdam Netherlands fax: +31 20 687 0019 e-mail:
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