Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change Exploring the Real Risks and How We Can Avoid Them Edited by Michael C. MacCracken, Frances Moore and John C. Topping, Jr London • Sterling, VA First published by Earthscan in the UK and USA in 2008 Copyright © The Climate Institute, 2008 All rights reserved Hardback ISBN-13: 978-1-84407-477-8 Paperback ISBN-13: 978-1-84407-478-5 Typeset by JS Typesetting Ltd, Porthcawl, Mid Glamorgan Printed and bound in the UK by Cromwell Press, Trowbridge Cover design by Susanne Harris For a full list of publications please contact: Earthscan 8–12 Camden High Street London, NW1 0JH, UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7387 8558 Fax: +44 (0)20 7387 8998 Email:
[email protected] Web: www.earthscan.co.uk 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166-2012, USA Earthscan publishes in association with the International Institute for Environment and Development A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Sudden and disruptive climate change : exploring the real risks and how we can avoid them / edited by Michael C. MacCracken, Frances Moore and John C. Topping, Jr. p. cm. ISBN-13: 978-1-84407-477-8 (hardback) ISBN-10: 1-84407-477-3 (hardback) ISBN-13: 978-1-84407-478-5 (pbk.) ISBN-10: 1-84407-478-1 (pbk.) 1. Climate changes–Social aspects. 2. Climate changes–Environmental aspects. I. MacCracken, Michael C. II. Moore, Frances. III. Topping, John C. QC981.8.C5S87 2007 551.6–dc22 2007034786 The paper used for this book is FSC-certified and totally chlorine-free. FSC (the Forest Stewardship Council) is an international network to promote responsible management of the world’s forests. Contents List of Figures, Tables and Boxes List of Acronyms and Abbreviations Foreword by Ambassador John Ashton viii xiii xv Introduction Michael C. MacCracken and John C. Topping, Jr 1 Part 1 The Potential for Rapid Changes to the Weather and Climate Introduction to Part 1 Michael C. MacCracken 7 8 1 Ten Reasons Why Climate Change May be More Severe than Projected A. Barrie Pittock 2 11 Potential Increased Hurricane Activity in a Greenhouse Warmed World Judith A. Curry 29 Potential Effects of Weather Extremes and Climate Change on Human Health Devra Lee Davis and John C. Topping, Jr 39 Part 2 The Potential for Rapid Melting of Ice and Amplification of Sea Level Rise Introduction to Part 2 Robert W. Corell 45 46 4 49 3 Changes in Polar Sea Ice Coverage Claire L. Parkinson vi 5 6 Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet and Implications for Global Sea Level Rise Eric Rignot 63 Why Predicting West Antarctic Ice Sheet Behavior is So Hard: What We Know, What We Don’t Know and How We Will Find Out Robert Bindschadler 75 Part 3 The Potential for Dramatic Changes in Coastal Regions Introduction to Part 3 The Honorable Tom Roper 7 The Potential for Significant Impacts on Chesapeake Bay from Global Warming Michael S. Kearney 81 82 85 8 The Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast: Human Development Patterns, Declining Ecosystems and Escalating Vulne