THE GLOBALTECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and Their Synergies with Information Technology by 2015 Philip S. Anto´n • Richard Silberglitt Prepared for the National Intelligence Council R National Defense Research Institute • James Schneider THE GLOBALTECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and Their Synergies with Information Technology by 2015 Philip S. Anto´n • Richard Silberglitt • James Schneider Prepared for the National Intelligence Council R National Defense Research Institute Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was prepared for the National Intelligence Council. The research was conducted in RAND’s National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center supported by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies under Contract DASW01-95-C-0069. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Anton, Philip S. The global technology revolution : bio/nano/materials trends and their synergies with information technology by 2015 / Philip S. Anton, Richard Silberglitt, James Schneider. p. cm. MR-1307 Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-2949-5 1. Technological innovations. 2. Technology and state. 3. Information technology. I. Silberglitt, R. S. (Richard S.) II. Schneider, James, 1972– III. Title. T173.8 .A58 2001 338.9'27—dc21 2001016075 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND ® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Maritta Tapanainen © Copyright 2001 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2001 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet:
[email protected] PREFACE This work was sponsored by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) to inform its publication of Global Trends 2015 (GT2015). GT2015 is a follow-on report to its 1996 document Global Trends 2010, which identified key factors that appeared poised to shape the world by 2010. The NIC believed that various technologies (including information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology (broadly defined), and materials technology) have the potential for significant and dominant global effects by 2015. The input presented in this report consists of a quick foresight into global technology trends in biotechnology, nanotechnology, and materials technology and their implications for information te