Global Warming And Agriculture: Impact Estimates By Country

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How will global warming affect developing countries, which rely heavily on agriculture as a source of economic growth? William Cline asserts that developing countries have more at risk than industrial countries as global warming worsens. Using general circulation and agricultural impact models, Cline boldly examines 2070-99 to forecast the effects of global warming and its economic impact. This detailed study: outlines existing studies on the agricultural impact of climate change; estimates projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and agricultural capacity; and concludes with policy recommendations. Cline finds that agricultural production in developing countries may fall between 10 and 25 percent, and if global warming progresses unabated, India s agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 percent. Thus, policymakers should address this phenomenon now before the world s developing countries are adversely and irreversibly affected.

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GLOBAL WARMING and AGRICULTURE Impact Estimates by Country GLOBAL WARMING and AGRICULTURE Impact Estimates by Country William R. Cline C E N T E R F O R G LO B A L D E V E LO P M E N T PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS Wa s h i n g to n , D C July 2007 00--FM--iv-xvi 6/28/07 10:28 AM Page iv William R. Cline is a senior fellow jointly at the Center for Global Development (since 2002) and the Peterson Institute for International Economics (since 1981). During 1996–2001, he was deputy managing director and chief economist at the Institute of International Finance. He was a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (1973–81); deputy director of development and trade research, office of the assistant secretary for international affairs, US Treasury Department (1971–73); Ford Foundation visiting professor in Brazil (1970–71); and lecturer and assistant professor of economics at Princeton University (1967–70). He is the author of 22 books, including The United States as a Debtor Nation (2005), Trade Policy and Global Poverty (2004), Trade and Income Distribution (1997), International Debt Reexamined (1995), and The Economics of Global Warming (1992), which was selected by Choice for its 1993 “Outstanding Academic Books” list and was the winner of the “Harold and Margaret Sprout Prize” for best book of 1992 on International Environmental Affairs, awarded by the International Studies Association. CENTER FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 1776 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Third floor Washington, DC 20036 (202) 416-0700 FAX: (202) 416-0750 www.cgdev.org Nancy Birdsall, President PETER G. PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 (202) 328-9000 Fax: (202) 659-3225 www.petersoninstitute.org Copyright © 2007 by the Center for Global Development and the Peterson Institute for International Economics. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by information storage or retrieval system, without permission from the Center and the Institute. For reprints/permission to photocopy please contact the APS customer service department at Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923; or email requests to: [email protected] Printed in the United States of America 09 08 07 5 4 3 2 1 Library of Congress Cataloging-inPublication Data Cline, William R. Global warming and agriculture : impact estimates by country / William R. Cline. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-88132-403-7 (alk. paper) 1. Global warming—Environmental aspects. 2. Plants—Effect of global warming