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Interactions between agriculture, climate and patterns of land use are complex. Major changes in agriculture, and land use patterns are foreseen in the next couple of decades in response to shifts in climate, greenhouse gas management initiatives, population growth and other forces. The book explores key interactions between changes in agriculture, patterns of land use and efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions from agriculture. The volume is based on inter-disciplinary science and policy interactions, exploring the way land use may aid in addressing or be affected by the onset of climate change and alterations in food demand. Future forces shaping land use decisions are examined, and its sensitivity to climate change is highlighted. Patterns of land use and the agricultural role in climate change mitigation are explored. Also, policy and social responses to the new perspectives on future land use patterns are identified. The perspective of the book is beyond the year 2015.
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AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE BEYOND 2015 A New Perspective on Future Land Use Patterns ENVIRONMENT & POLICY VOLUME 46 The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume. Agriculture and Climate Beyond 2015 A New Perspective on Future Land Use Patterns Edited by Floor Brouwer LEI, Wageningen UR, The Hague, The Netherlands and Bruce A. McCarl Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, U.S.A. A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN-10 ISBN-13 ISBN-10 ISBN-13 1-4020-4063-6 (HB) 978-1-4020-4063-4 (HB) 1-4020-4368-6 (e-book) 978-1-4020-4368-0 (e-book) Published by Springer, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands. www.springer.com Logos used with permission from IGBP, IHDP and LUCC Printed on acid-free paper All Rights Reserved © 2006 Springer No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed in the Netherlands. Contents Contributors ix List of abbreviations xv Preface xvii 1. Introduction Floor Brouwer and Bruce A. McCarl 1 Part 1: Setting the scene 2. Agriculture, climate and future land use patterns: potential for a simulation-based exploration Peter H. Verburg and Jan Peter Lesschen 3. Technology development and climate change as drivers of future agricultural land use Frank Ewert, Mark Rounsevell, Isabelle Reginster, Marc Metzger and Rik Leemans 4. Agricultural transitions at dryland and tropical forest margins: actors, scales and trade-offs Helmut Geist, Eric Lambin, Cheryl Palm and Thomas Tomich 5 33 53 Part 2: Cases on future land use 5. World livestock and crop production systems, land use and environment between 1970 and 2030 Lex Bouwman, Klaas van der Hoek, Gerard van Drecht and Bas Eickhout 6. Agricultural change and limits to deforestation in Central America David Carr, Alisson Barbieri, William Pan and Heide Iranavi v 75 91 vi Contents 7. Rising food demand, climate change and the use of land and water Hermann Lotze-Campen, Christoph Müller, Alberte Bondeau, Pascalle Smith and Wolfgang Lucht 109 8. Population and economic growth as drivers of future land use in India Neeraj Sharma 131 Part 3: Agricultural mitigation responses 9. Bottom-up methodologies for