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Newton urged scientists never to speculate, only to prove by establishing experimental facts. By contrast, Einstein urged scientists to speculate freely, since only daring speculations, not experimental facts, can advance science. Who, if either, is right? Is speculation a legitimate part of science, even in the absence of testing? If so, can speculations be evaluated without testing? How? To answer these questions it must first be determined what counts as a speculation, a task not usually investigated by those who express strong views about speculation. In<em>Speculation, Peter Achinstein develops the basic idea that speculating involves introducing assumptions, under certain "theorizing" conditions, without knowing that there is evidence for those assumptions. This idea is made precise by utilizing a concept of "evidence" Achinstein has introduced in previous writings and also explains here. With this concept, Achinstein defends a view according to which, by contrast with Newton, speculations are crucial in science, and by contrast with Einstein, they are subject to constraints. The latter include pragmatic ones, reflecting the particular aims of the scientist in speculating, and epistemic ones that are subject to a different standard then "evidence sufficient for belief." This viewpoint is illustrated and evaluated by critically examining historical and contemporary speculations in fundamental physics as well as more general speculations within or about science, including these: nature is simple, and simplicity is a sign of truth (Newton, Einstein); a theory can only be tested "holistically" (Duhem and Quine); and there is, and must be, a "Theory of Everything" (string theorists and reductionists).
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SPECULATION
SPECULATION Within and About Science
PETER ACHINSTEIN
1
1 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America. © Oxford University Press 2019 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. CIP data is on file at the Library of Congress ISBN 978–0–19–061505–5 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed by Sheridan Books, Inc., United States of America
Draga Juditomnak
“Speculation” (mass noun): The forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence. —Oxford Living Dictionaries
CONTENTS
Preface Acknowledgments 1 . 2. 3. 4. 5.
6.
Scientific Speculation: A Pragmatic Approach The Complex Story of Simplicity: Ontological and Epistemic Speculations Non-Epistemic Simplicity: Maxwell, Newton, and Speculation Holism vs. Particularism: An Evidential Debate (“Find the Ether”) The Ultimate Speculation: A “Theory of Everything” (What Is It, and Why Should We Want One?) Summing Up Index
ix xv 1 68 122 168
216 262 273
PREFACE
Every problem has a solution, and every solution has a problem. That’s why there is speculation. It’s easier to do and has fewer problems. That’s also why, according