The Us-china Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, And The Evolving Balance Of Power

C O R P O R AT I O N The U.S.-CHINA Military Scorecard Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power 1996–2017 Eric Heginbotham Michael Nixon, Forrest E. Morgan, Jacob L. Heim, Jeff Hagen, Sheng Li, Jeffrey Engstrom, Martin C. Libicki, Paul DeLuca, David A. Shlapak, David R. Frelinger, Burgess Laird, Kyle Brady, Lyle J. Morris For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr392 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Heginbotham, Eric, author. The U.S.-China military scorecard : forces, geography, and the evolving balance of power, 1996-2017 / Eric Heginbotham ... [and thirteen others]. pages cm Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-8219-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. China—Strategic aspects. 2. China—Military policy. 3. United States—Military policy. 4. Spratly Islands— Strategic aspects. 5. Taiwan—Strategic aspects. 6. National security—China. 7. National security—United States. 8. National security—Pacific Area. 9. China—Armed Forces. 10. United States—Armed Forces. I. Title. UA835.H427 2015 355'.033551—dc23 2015031303 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2015 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Eileen Delson La Russo Cover map photo by FrankRamspott/iStock; U.S. flag by tacktack/iStock; Chinese flag by chokkicx/iStock Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Over the past two decades, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has transformed itself from a large but antiquated force into a capable, modern military. In many areas, its technology and skill levels lag behind those of the United States, but it has narrowed the gap. Moreover, it enjoys the advantage of proximity in most plausible Asian conflict scenarios and has developed capabilities that capitalize