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Everyone reasons probabilistically more or less constantly, figures Nickerson (experimental psychology, Tufts U.), and he is interested in how well they do so. He explores its origins, its status, its use in various contexts, what recent research has revealed about it, and other facets. His history, not of gambling but of the serious study of it, begins with the seminal correspondence between Pascal and Fermat in 1654. He assumes no specialized knowledge, but the ability to learn and follow sometimes complicated notation.
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Cognition ana Chance The Psychology 01 Probabilistic Reasoning
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Cognition and Chance The Psychology 01 Probabilistic Reasoning
Raymond S. Nickerson Tufts University
2004
LAWRENCE ERLBAUM ASSOCIATES, PUBLISHERS Mahwah, New Jersey London
Copyright © 2004 by Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form, by photostat, microform, retrieval system, or any other means, without prior written permission of the publisher. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc., Publishers 10 Industrial Avenue Mahwah, New Jersey 07430 Cover design by Kathryn Houghtaling Lacey Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-8058-4898-3 (cloth : alk. Paper) ISBN 0-8058-4899-1 (pbk.: alk. paper)
2003 —dc22
2003000000 CIP
Books published by Lawrence Erlbaum Associates are printed on acid-free paper, and their bindings are chosen for strength and durability. Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
To the fond memory of Carlton Gregory and A. Douglas Glanville exceptional teachers who honored their students by making them think
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Contents
Preface<