Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises

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The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone frequent - and often extreme - shifts over periods of less than 50 years. The exact causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. A recurrence of the same type of abrupt climate change would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the likely societal consequences of such a change? "The Science and Policy Implications of Abrupt Climate Change" looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including likely patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps.

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Abrupt Climate Change Inevitable Surprises Committee on Abrupt Climate Change Ocean Studies Board Polar Research Board Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS • 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. • Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant 50-DKNA-7-90052 between the National Academy of Sciences, NOAA’s United States Global Change Research Program, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Additional funds for the impacts workshop were provided by the Yale National Bureau of Economic Research Program on Environmental Economics. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Abrupt climate change : inevitable surprises / Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, Ocean Studies Board, Polar Research Board, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-309-07434-7 I. National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Abrupt Climate Change. 2002002017 Cover: This Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) image provided by NASA JPL and acquired from the Space Shuttle Endeavour, STS-59 (April 11, 1994), shows part of the vast Namib Sand Sea on the west coast of southern Africa, just northeast of the city of Luderitz, Namibia. This region receives only a few centimeters of rain per year. The colors are assigned to different radar frequencies. The magenta areas in the image are fields of sand dunes, and the orange area along the bottom is the surface of the South Atlantic Ocean. The bright green features in the upper right are rocky hills protruding through the sand sea. Because this radar penetrates through the sand, it can reveal sub-surface features such as former lakes, rivers, and drainage channels that have long since dried up as the climate changed. SIR-C/X-SAR is a joint US-German-Ita
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