Coming Climate Crisis? Consider The Past, Beware The Big Fix

Coming Climate Crisis? Coming Climate Crisis? CONSIDER THE PAST, BEWARE THE BIG FIX CLAIRE L. PARKINSON ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD PUBLISHERS, INC. Lanham • Boulder • New York • Toronto • Plymouth, UK Published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc. A wholly owned subsidiary of The Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc. 4501 Forbes Boulevard, Suite 200, Lanham, Maryland 20706 http://www.rowmanlittlefield.com Estover Road, Plymouth PL6 7PY, United Kingdom Distributed by National Book Network Copyright © 2010 by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc. Portions of this book are not subject to U.S. copyright. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means, including information storage and retrieval systems, without written permission from the publisher, except by a reviewer who may quote passages in a review. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Information Available Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Parkinson, Claire L. Coming climate crisis? : consider the past, beware the big fix / Claire L. Parkinson. p. cm. — (Why of where) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-7425-5615-7 (cloth : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-7425-6830-3 (electronic) 1. Climatic changes. 2. Climatic changes—Environmental aspects. I. Title. QC981.8.C5P377 2010 551.6—dc22 2010005874 ⬁ ™ The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992. To my sister Jean L. Harris, for her friendship, and my uncle Thomas I. Parkinson, Jr., for his much appreciated kindness and encouragement CONTENTS Foreword by Lonnie G. Thompson Preface ix xiii part i The Earth System and Its Ever-Changing Nature 1 2 3 Introduction 4.6 Billion Years of Global Change Abrupt Climate Change 3 27 73 part ii The Human Factor 4 5 A Short History of Human Impacts The Future: Why Some People Are So Concerned while Others Aren’t 93 125 part iii Good Intentions and Geoengineering 6 7 8 Good Intentions Gone Awry Geoengineering Schemes The Record on Smaller-Scale Attempted Modifications 151 165 193 part iv Further Cautionary Considerations 9 The Possible Fallibility of Even a Strong Consensus 10 The Unknown Future: Model Limitations 11 Compounding Social Pressures vii 215 235 259 viii b contents part v Avoiding Paralysis despite Uncertainty 12 13 What Are the Alternatives? Closing Plea Abbreviations Notes References Index About the Author 295 323 337 341 359 395 411 FOREWORD This book discusses the potential pitfalls associated with geoengineered solutions to global climate change. Dr. Claire Parkinson is an accomplished, respected, and widely published scientist whose opinions on climate change and its solutions are well worth our attention. Dr. Parkinson shows great command of the scientific literature and presents her arguments in a thoughtful and respectful manner. Her research into the background of climate change science and the controversy surrounding it is very thorough. Although I do not share all of Dr. Parkinson’s views, particularly regarding the scholarly contributions and motives of some climate contrarians, having known her since our time as graduate students at The Ohio State University, I applaud her for having the courage to express her opinion and concerns. Moreover, I am confident that she embarked on this book with no hidden agenda and that the views expressed therein reflect her genuine concern for humanity’s collective future. The primary message that Dr. Parkinson conveys in this book is that “globa