Climate Variability, Predictability And Climate Risks: A European Perspective

CLIMATE VARIABILITY, PREDICTABILITY AND CLIMATE RISKS A European Perspective CLIMATE VARIABILITY, PREDICTABILITY AND CLIMATE RISKS A European Perspective Edited by Heinz Wanner Martin Grosjean Regine R¨othlisberger Elena Xoplaki NCCR Climate Management Center, University of Bern, Switzerland The National Centres of Competence in Research (NCCR) are a research instrument of the Swiss National Science Foundation Reprinted from Climatic Change Volume 79, Nos. 1–2, 2006 A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN-13 978-1-4020-5713-7 ISBN-10 1-4020-5713-X Published by Springer, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands. www.springer.com cover picture – copyright keystone Printed on acid-free paper All rights reserved c 2006 Springer and copyright holders as specified on appropriate pages within. No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Contents ¨ HEINZ WANNER, MARTIN GROSJEAN, REGINE ROTHLISBERGER and ELENA XOPLAKI / Climate variability, predictability and climate risks: a European perspective ¨ CHRISTOPH C. RAIBLE, CARLO CASTY, JURG LUTERBACHER, ANDREAS ¨ PAULING, JAN ESPER, DAVID C. FRANK, ULF BUNTGEN, ANDREAS C. ROESCH, PETER TSCHUCK, MARTIN WILD, PIER-LUIGI VIDALE, ¨ and HEINZ WANNER / Climate variability – observations, CHRISTOPH SCHAR reconstructions, and model simulations for the Atlantic-European and Alpine region from 1500–2100 AD 1 9 CORNELIA SCHWIERZ, CHRISTOF APPENZELLER, HUW C. DAVIES, ¨ MARK A. LINIGER, WOLFGANG MULLER, THOMAS F. STOCKER and MASAKAZU YOSHIMORI / Challenges posed by and approaches to the study of seasonal-to-decadal climate variability 31 PIERLUIGI CALANCA, ANDREAS ROESCH, KARSTEN JASPER and MARTIN WILD / Global warming and the summertime evapotranspiration regime of the Alpine region 65 J. FUHRER, M. BENISTON, A. FISCHLIN, CH. FREI, S. GOYETTE, K. JASPER and CH. PFISTER / Climate risks and their impact on agriculture and forests in Switzerland 79 OLIVIER BAHN, LAURENT DROUET, NEIL R. EDWARDS, ALAIN HAURIE, RETO KNUTTI, SOCRATES KYPREOS, THOMAS F. STOCKER and JEANPHILIPPE VIAL / The coupling of optimal economic growth and climate dynamics 103 LAURENT VIGUIER, LEONARDO BARRETO, ALAIN HAURIE, SOCRATES KYPREOS and PETER RAFAJ / Modeling endogenous learning and imperfect competition effects in climate change economics ¨ BEAT BURGENMEIER, ANDREA BARANZINI, CATHERINE FERRIER, ´ CELINE GERMOND-DURET, KARIN INGOLD, SYLVAIN PERRET, PETER RAFAJ, SOCRATES KYPREOS and ALEXANDER WOKAUN / Economics of climate policy and collective decision making 121 143 Climatic Change (2006) 79:1–7 DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9155-x Climate variability, predictability and climate risks: a European perspective Heinz Wanner · Martin Grosjean · Regine R¨othlisberger · Elena Xoplaki Received: 24 March 2006 / Accepted: 24 May 2006 / Published online: 8 November 2006 C Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2006 The aim of climate research is to increase our knowledge about the nature of climate and the causes of climate variabi