E-Book Overview
In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
E-Book Content
The American Business Cycle Studies in Business Cycles Volume 25 National Bureau of Economic Research Conference on Research in Business Cycles The American Business Cycle Continuity and Change Edited by Robert J. Gordon The University of Chicago l?ress Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 1986 by The National Bureau of Economic Research All rights reserved. Published 1986 Paperback edition 1990 Printed in the United States of America 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 90 5 4 3 2 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Main entry under title: The American business cycle. Includes bibliographies and index. 1. Business cycles-United States-Addresses, essays, lectures. I. Gordon, Robert J. (Robert James), 1940HB3743.A47 1986 338.5'42'0973 85-29026 ISBN 0..226-30452-3 (cloth) ISBN 0-226-30453-1 (paper) National Bureau of Economic Research Officers Franklin A. Lindsay, chairman Richard Rosett, vice-chairman Martin Feldstein, president Geoffrey Carliner, executive director Charles A. Walworth, treasurer Sam Parkt~r, director offinance and adminis tration Directors at Large Moses Abramovitz Andrew Brimmer George T. Conklin, Jr. Jean A. Crockett Morton Ehrlich Martin Feldstein Edward L. Ginzton David L. Grove Walter W. Heller Saul B. Klaman Franklin A. Lindsay Roy E. Moor Geoffrey H. Moore Michael H. Moskow James J. O'Leary Peter G. Peterson Robert V. Roosa Richard N. Rosett Bert Seidman Eli Shapiro Stephen Stamas Donald S. Wasserman Marina v.N. Whitman Directors by University Appointment Marcus Alexis, Northwestern Charles H. Berry, Princeton James Duesenberry, Harvard Ann F. Friedlaender, Massachusetts Institute of Technology J. C. LaForce, California, Los Angeles Paul McCracken, Michigan James L. Pierce, California, Berkeley Nathan Rosenberg, Stanford James Simler, Minnesota James Tobin, Yale John Vernon, Duke William S. Vickrey, Columbia Burton A. Weisbrod, Wisconsin Arnold Z,ellner, Chicago Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations Carl F. Christ, American Economic Association Robert S. Hamada, American Finance Association Gilbert Heebner, National Association of Business Economists Robert C. Holland, Committee for Economic Development James Houck, American Agricultural Economics Association Douglass C.