E-Book Overview
Alan Jones' practical guide to the robust but often misunderstood techniques of Linear and Non-Linear Regression in the context of estimating.The text considers Simple Linear Regression and ask what is it doing?, how good is it?, how accurate is it? and how can we use it to create estimates? Not all estimating relationships are linear, but if you could convert them into a format where they were linear then life would be a lot easier. The book considers this under the title of Linear Transformation and looks at how you can exploit this transformability and use the capability of Simple Linear RegressionFinally, the section on Time Series Analysis looks at data which exhibits a repeating pattern of variation over time around an underlying trend.
E-Book Content
“In the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting Alan has managed to capture the full spectrum of relevant topics with simple explanations, practical examples and academic rigor, while injecting humour into the narrative.” – Dale Shermon, Chairman, Society of Cost Analysis and Forecasting (SCAF) “If estimating has always baffled you, this innovative well illustrated and user friendly book will prove a revelation to its mysteries. To confidently forecast, minimise risk and reduce uncertainty we need full disclosure into the science and art of estimating.Thankfully, and at long last the “Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting” are exactly that, full of practical examples giving clarity, understanding and validity to the techniques. These are comprehensive step by step guides in understanding the principles of estimating using experientially based models to analyse the most appropriate, repeatable, transparent and credible outcomes. Each of the five volumes affords a valuable tool for both corporate reference and an outstanding practical resource for the teaching and training of this elusive and complex subject. I wish I had access to such a thorough reference when I started in this discipline over 15 years ago, I am looking forward to adding this to my library and using it with my team.” – Tracey L Clavell, Head of Estimating & Pricing, BAE Systems Australia “At last, a comprehensive compendium on these engineering math subjects, essential to both the new and established “cost engineer”! As expected the subjects are presented with the author’s usual wit and humour on complex and daunting “mathematically challenging” subjects. As a professional trainer within the MOD Cost Engineering community trying to embed this into my students, I will be recommending this series of books as essential bedtime reading.” – Steve Baker, Senior Cost Engineer, DE&S MOD “Alan has been a highly regarded member of the Cost Estimating and forecasting profession for several years. He is well known for an ability to reduce difficult topics and cost estimating methods down to something that is easily digested. As a master of this communication he would most often be found providing training across the cost estimating and forecasting tools and at all levels of expertise. With this 5-volume set, Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting, Alan has brought his normal verbal training method into a written form.Within their covers Alan steers away from the usual dry academic script into establishing an almost 1:1 relationship with the reader. For my money a recommendable read for all levels of the Cost Estimating and forecasting profession and those who simply want to understand what is in the ‘blackbox’ just a bit more.” – Prof Robert Mills, Margin Engineering, Birmingham City University. MACOSTE, SCAF, ICEAA “Finally, a book to fill the gap in cost estimating and forecasting! Although other publications exist in this field, they tend to be light on detail whilst also failing to cover many of the essential aspects of estimating and forecasting. Jones covers all this and more from both