The Limits of Enlargement-lite: European and Russian Power in the Troubled Neighbourhood Nicu Popescu & Andrew Wilson POLICY REPORT The Limits of Enlargement-lite: European and Russian Power in the Troubled Neighbourhood Nicu Popescu & Andrew Wilson The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. This paper, like all publications of the European Council on Foreign Relations, represents only the views of its authors. Copyright of this publication is held by the European Council on Foreign Relations. You may not copy, reproduce, republish or circulate in any way the content from this publication except for your own personal and non-commercial use. Any other use requires the prior written permission of the European Council on Foreign Relations. © ECFR June 2009. Published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), 5th Floor Cambridge House, 100 Cambridge Grove, London W6 0LE lond
[email protected] ISBN: 978-1-906538-13-2 Acknowledgements Special thanks are due to our research assistant Stanislav Secrieru for all his hard work on the report. This report has benefited from data and analysis provided by experts from the six eastern neighbourhood states – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. Each expert conducted a survey of his or her country’s economic and political relations with the EU. Our thanks go to Tevan Poghosyan, Tabib Huseynov, Vlad Lupan, Oleksandr Sushko, Vitali Silitski and Archil Gegeshidze. Although we have been informed by their research, responsibility for the arguments and analysis advanced in this paper lies with the authors alone. At ECFR we are indebted to Tom Nuttall, Mark Leonard, Rob Blackhurst, Ulrike Guérot, Thomas Klau, Alba Lamberti, Katherine Parkes, Vanessa Stevens, Vessela Tcherneva, José Ignacio Torreblanca and Nick Witney. We would also like to thank numerous colleagues who have shared their expertise, insights and time with us while we were working on this report: Lala Abasova, Arzu Abdulayeva, Leila Alieva, Farda Asadov, Anders Aslund, Ron Asmus, George Balan, Arcadie Barbarosie, Paulo Barroso-Simoes, Paolo Berizzi, Jean-Yves Berthault, John Beyer, Carolyn Brown, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Sean Carroll, Patrick Child, Victor Chirila, Dato Chochia, Viorel Cibotaru, Bruno Coppieters, David Darchiashvili, Remi Duflot, Murat Dzhoev, Olof Ehrenkrona, Per Eklund, Michael Emerson, Steven Everts, Bjorn Fagerberg, Mark Fawcett, Vasyl Filipchuk, Patricia Flor, Giorgi Gogia, Elena Gnedina, Ryan Grist, Iulian Groza, Carl Hallergard, Hilde Hardeman, Carl Hartzell, Paruyr Hovhannissyan, Rashad Huseynli, Kestutis Jankauskas, Mindaugas Kacerauskis, Rolandas Kacinskas, Ivaylo Kalfin, Kaupo Kand, Denis Keefe, Allison Kerr, Ivlian Khaindrava, Elene Khoshtaria, John Kjaer, Gerald Knaus, Modest Kolerov, Simon Kordonsky, Daniel Kostoval, Daniel Kunin, Batu Kutelia, Angus Lapsley, Milos Lexa, Kadri Liik, Masha Lipman, Fyodor Lukianov, Vlad Lupan, Dov Lynch, Alistair MacDonald, Ilgar Mammadov, Sergey Markov, Constantin Matache, Raduta Matache, Marianne Mikko, Hugues Mingarelli, Misha Mirzeishvili, Kalman Mizsei, Daniela Moraru, Igor Munteanu, Rasim Musabayev, Tofig Musayev, Eldar Namazov, Oazu Nantoi, Veselin Nikolaev, Ghia Nodia, Alar Olljum, Elena Prokhorova, John O’Rourke, Valeriu Ostalep, Rasa Ostrauskaite, Simon Panek, Zygimantas Pavilionis, Gleb Pavlovsky, Olaf Poeschke, Tomas Pojar, Andrei Popov, Kristi Raik, Eugen Revenco, Alex Rondos, Mikheil Saakashvili, George Saghin, Dmitri Sanakoev, Stefan Schleuning, Jurgen Schmidt, Jiri Schneider, Peter Semneby, Keith Shannon, Jeremy Shapiro, Javier Solana, Vasilii Sova, Ion Stavila, Lina Sucilaite, Pirkka Tapiola, Richrad Tibbels, Dmitri Trenin, Vadim Tsmybursky, Calin Ionut Ungur, Vyga