Demographic Change in Germany Ingrid Hamm · Helmut Seitz Martin Werding (Editors) Demographic Change in Germany The Economic and Fiscal Consequences 123 Dr. Ingrid Hamm Robert Bosch Stiftung Heidehofstraße 31 70184 Stuttgart Germany
[email protected] Professor Dr. Helmut Seitz TU Dresden Lehrstuhl für Empirische Finanzwissenschaft und Finanzpolitik Helmholtzstraße 10 01062 Dresden Germany
[email protected] Dr. Martin Werding ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Poschingerstraße 5 81679 München Germany
[email protected] Library of Congress Control Number: 2007935108 ISBN 978-3-540-68135-9 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. Springer is a part of Springer Science+Business Media springer.com © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2008 The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Production: LE-TEX Jelonek, Schmidt & Vöckler GbR, Leipzig Cover-design: WMX Design GmbH, Heidelberg SPIN 11947936 88/3180YL - 5 4 3 2 1 0 Printed on acid-free paper Preface Just as one might be inclined to think that everything about demographic change has been already said and heard, a new dimension opens up. In fact, this is what makes the topic so fascinating. There is nothing trivial any longer about children, families, age, and care. Europe is undergoing profound demographic change. Each generation of children is quantitatively smaller than that of their parents; the proportion of children and adolescents among the population is becoming smaller and smaller, while that of the elderly is growing inexorably. Fewer and fewer people are marrying; more and more marriages are failing. Many areas of our society are affected by this; just think about the challenges faced by the social security systems as a result of demographic ageing. Politicians and society are forced to adjust to demographic change. Many people in Europe are concerned about these changes and are looking to politicians and researchers for solutions. Predictions are never easy, especially not about the future. Demographic indicators are among the safest guidelines into the unknown. Children unborn today will certainly not contribute to social systems during the next years and will not pay back debt accumulate