Probabilistic Methods for Financial and Marketing Informatics Richard E. Neapolitan Xia Jiang Publisher Publishing Services Manager Project Manager Assistant Editor Interior printer Cover printer Diane D. Cerra George Morrison Kathryn Liston Asma Palmeiro The Maple-Vail Book Manufacturing Group Phoenix Color Morgan Kaufmann Publishers is an imprint of Elsevier. 500 Sansome Street, Suite 400, San Francisco, CA 94111 This book is printed on acid-free paper. @ 2007 by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks or registered trademarks. In all instances in which Morgan Kaufmann Publishers is aware of a claim, the product names appear in initial capital or all capital letters. Readers, however, should contact the appropriate companies for more complete information regarding trademarks and registration. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means--electronic, mechanical, photocopying, scanning, or otherwise-without prior written permission of the publisher. Permissions may be sought directly from Elsevier's Science & Technology Rights Department in Oxford, UK: phone: (+44) 1865 843830, fax: (+44) 1865 853333, E-mail:
[email protected] You may also complete your request online via the Elsevier homepage (http://elsevier.com), by selecting "Support Contact" then "Copyright and Permission" and then "Obtaining Permissions." Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Application submitted. ISBN 13:978-0-12-370477-1 ISBN10:0-12-370477-4 For information on all Morgan Kaufmann publications, visit our Web site at www.mkp.com or www.books.elsevier.com. Printed in the United States of America 07 08 09 10 11 10987654321 Working together to grow libraries in developing countries www.elsevier.com I www.bookaid.org I www.sabre.org Preface This book is based on a course I recently developed for computer science majors at Northeastern Illinois University (NEIU). The motivation for developing this course came from guidance I obtained from the NEIU Computer Science Department Advisory Board. One objective of this Board is to advise the Department concerning the maintenance of curricula that is relevant to the needs of companies in Chicagoland. The Board consists of individuals in IT departments from major companies such as Walgreen's, AON Company, United Airlines, Harris Bank, and Microsoft. After the dot.com bust and the introduction of outsourcing, it became evident that students, trained only in the fundamentals of computer science, programming, web design, etc., often did not have the skills to compete in the current U.S. job market. So I asked the Advisory Board what else the students should know. The board unanimously felt the students needed business skills such as knowledge of IT project management, marketing, and finance. As a result, our revised curriculum, for students who hoped to obtain employment immediately following graduation, contained a number of business courses. However, several members of