E-Book Overview
Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naivet?, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.
E-Book Content
Cognition ana Chance The Psychology 01 Probabilistic Reasoning This page intentionally left blank Cognition and Chance The Psychology 01 Probabilistic Reasoning Raymond S. Nickerson Tufts University 2004 LAWRENCE ERLBAUM ASSOCIATES, PUBLISHERS Mahwah, New Jersey London Copyright © 2004 by Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form, by photostat, microform, retrieval system, or any other means, without prior written permission of the publisher. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc., Publishers 10 Industrial Avenue Mahwah, New Jersey 07430 Cover design by Kathryn Houghtaling Lacey Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-8058-4898-3 (cloth : alk. Paper) ISBN 0-8058-4899-1 (pbk.: alk. paper) 2003 —dc22 2003000000 CIP Books published by Lawrence Erlbaum Associates are printed on acid-free paper, and their bindings are chosen for strength and durability. Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 To the fond memory of Carlton Gregory and A. Douglas Glanville exceptional teachers who honored their students by making them think This page intentionally left blank Contents Preface ise 1. Probability and Cbance 1 2. Randomness 54 3. Coincidences 82 4. Inverse Probability and tbe Reverend Tnomas Bayes 1O9 5. Some Instructive Problems 144 6. Some Probability Paradoxes and Dilemmas 181 7. Statistics 232 8. Estimation and Prediction 283 9. Perception of Covariation and Contingency 332 10. Cboice under Uncertainty 355 11. People as Intuitive Probabilists 398 12. Concluding Comments 436 Vll vm References 439 Author Index 489 Subject Index 5O5 Pre£ace everybody thinks probabilistically, whether knowingly or not. We judge the likelihood that the barking dog will bite, that the rumor that the company is about to have a big layoff is true, that bottled water is purer than wha