Unfunded Pension Systems: Ageing And Migration

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Pension systems in most industrialised countries are unfunded, i.e. they are pay-as-you-go financed and thus depend on a well-balanced ratio (old) recipients to (young) contributors. This so-called dependency ratio will worsen significantly in the next few decades due to two developments: ageing of the population and increased labour mobility.This book analyses the viability of unfunded pension systems in the presence of the projected demographic evolution. The analysis focuses on questions concerninga) efficiency considerations and the possibility of welfare improvements;b) political economy aspects and the feasibility of reforms; c) the process of European integration and its influence on national pension systems. The theoretical analysis is complemented in numerous ways by quantitative parts and institutional details. The consequences of the demographic crisis for the distribution of the pension burden within and across generations and in an international context are illustrated with respect to the specific situation in Germany and other European countries.It is shown for different settings of political power distribution and for different degrees of mobility what would happen without any reforms and what could and should be done to guarantee the survival of old-age security based on a fair sharing of the pension burden. Neither explosion nor erosion is the inevitable fate of unfunded pension systems. But to avoid either happening, fundamental reforms are necessary as soon as possible which loosen at least partially the intergenerational dependencies and thus reduce the pressure from the changing population structure on old-age security.

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UNFUNDED PENSION SYSTEMS: Ageing and Migration CONTRIBUTIONS TO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 264 Honorary Editors: D.W. JORGENSON J. TINBERGEN† Editors: B. BALTAGI E. SADKA D. WILDASIN Amsterdam – Boston – Heidelberg – London – New York – Oxford – Paris San Diego – San Francisco – Singapore – Sydney – Tokyo UNFUNDED PENSION SYSTEMS: Ageing and Migration SILKE UEBELMESSER Center for Economic Studies, University of Munich, Munich, Germany, and CESifo 2004 Amsterdam – Boston – Heidelberg – London – New York – Oxford – Paris San Diego – San Francisco – Singapore – Sydney – Tokyo ELSEVIER B.V. Sara Burgerhartstraat 25 P.O. Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam The Netherlands ELSEVIER Inc. 525 B Street, Suite 1900 San Diego, CA 92101-4495 USA ELSEVIER Ltd The Boulevard, Langford Lane Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB UK ELSEVIER Ltd 84 Theobalds Road London WC1X 8RR UK q 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. This work is protected under copyright by Elsevier B.V., and the following terms and conditions apply to its use: Photocopying Single photocopies of single chapters may be made for personal use as allowed by national copyright laws. Permission of the Publisher and payment of a fee is required for all other photocopying, including multiple or systematic copying, copying for advertising or promotional purposes, resale, and all forms of document delivery. Special rates are available for educational institutions that wish to make photocopies for non-profit educational classroom use. Permissions may be sought directly from Elsevier’s Rights Department in Oxford, UK: phone (+44) 1865 843830, fax (+44) 1865 853333, e-mail: [email protected] Requests may also be completed on-line via the Elsevier homepage (http://www. elsevier.com/locate/permissions). In the USA, users may clear permissions and make payments through the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; phone: (+1) (978) 7508400, fax: (+1) (978) 7504744, and in the UK through the Cop