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Using data from 16 years of the General Social Surveys, Legault examines changes in HGO over time. A number of hypotheses to explain changes in HGO reporting are evaluated and tested including differential reporting by men and women (Gender Gap), changes in household makeup and population, the urbanization of America, and an actual reduction in overall firearms ownership. These hypotheses are tested using logistic regression, logistic fixed-effects models, and changing parameter models. Results of these tests imply that recent reductions in HGO may not be as pronounced as once thought, and are due to a complex interplay of a variety of demographic changes in the U.S. population.
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Criminal Justice Recent Scholarship Edited by Marilyn McShane and Frank P. Williams III A Series from LFB Scholarly This page intentionally left blank Trends in American Gun Ownership Richard L. Legault LFB Scholarly Publishing LLC New York 2008 Copyright © 2008 by LFB Scholarly Publishing LLC All rights reserved. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Legault, Richard L., 1971Trends in American gun ownership / Richard L. Legault. p. cm. -- (Criminal justice : recent scholarship) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-59332-267-0 (alk. paper) 1. Firearms ownership--United States. I. Title. HV8059.L43 2008 363.33--dc22 2008015989 ISBN 978-1-59332-267-0 Printed on acid-free 250-year-life paper. Manufactured in the United States of America. Table of Contents 1. Who Owns Guns in America _______________________1 2. A History of American Gun Ownership ______________11 3. Scientific Polling________________________________39 4. Explaining Trends in Gun Ownership________________61 5. The General Social Surveys _______________________71 6. Modeling Repeated Survey Data ___________________81 7. Simple Trends in Gun Ownership___________________95 8. Who Reports Gun Ownership? ____________________ 105 9. Understanding HGO ____________________________ 129 Bibliography __________________________________ 141 Appendix A – Survey Questions___________________ 151 Appendix B – Rejected Models ___________________ 159 Subject Index _________________________________ 167 v This page intentionally left blank Acknowledgements This research was supported in part by an appointment to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Research Opportunity Program administered by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) through a cooperative agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. ORISE is managed by Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU) under the DOE contract number DE-AC05-06OR23100. All opinions expressed in this paper are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the policies and views of DHS, DOE, or ORAU/ORISE. I consider myself exceptionally fortunate to have enjoyed the assistance, insight, and considerable talent of those who have reviewed this work. I would particularly like to express my deepest gratitude to Alan Lizotte, David McDowall, Graeme Newman, Steven Messner, and Piyusha Singh. Each has provided invaluable advice and suggestions on previous editions of this work. I also extend my thanks to Bob Vasquez for his comments on Chapter 6, Katherine Worboys for her advice on the historical review in Chapter 2, and the members of the START Center for their encouragement. I must also mention the accommodation and consideration provided to me by my colleagues at the Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics. Your assistance, cooperation, and collaboration were among the most important influenc