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Since the Hiroshima and Nagasaki attacks, no state has unleashed nuclear weapons. What explains this? According to the author, the answer lies in a prohibition inherent in the tradition of non-use, a time-honored obligation that has been adhered to by all nuclear states—thanks to a consensus view that use would have a catastrophic impact on humankind, the environment, and the reputation of the user.The book offers an in-depth analysis of the nuclear policies of the U.S., Russia, China, the UK, France, India, Israel, and Pakistan and assesses the contributions of these states to the rise and persistence of the tradition of nuclear non-use. It examines the influence of the tradition on the behavior of nuclear and non-nuclear states in crises and wars, and explores the tradition's implications for nuclear non-proliferation regimes, deterrence theory, and policy. And it concludes by discussing the future of the tradition in the current global security environment.
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The Tradition of Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons The Tradition of Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons T. V. Paul STANFORD SECURITY STUDIES An Imprint of Stanford University Press Stanford, California Stanford University Press Stanford, California © 2009 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of Stanford University Press. Printed in the United States of America on acid-free, archival-quality paper Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Paul, T. V. The tradition of non-use of nuclear weapons / T. V. Paul. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-8047-6131-4 (cloth : alk. paper)—ISBN 978-0-8047-6132-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Nuclear weapons—Government policy. 2. Nuclear nonproliferation—Government policy. 3. Nuclear weapons—Moral and ethical aspects. 4. Nuclear warfare—Psychological aspects. 5. Deterrence (Strategy) I. Title. U264.P38 2009 355.02'17—dc22 2008025300 Typeset by Thompson Type in 10/14 Minion Special discounts for bulk quantities of Stanford Security Studies are available to corporations, professional associations, and other organizations. For details and discount information, contact the special sales department of Stanford University Press. Tel: (650) 736-1783, Fax: (650) 736-1784 Contents Acknowledgments vii 1 15 3 The United States and the Tradition I: The Truman and Eisenhower Years (1945–1961) 38 4 The United States and the Tradition II: Kennedy to Clinton (1961–2001) 64 2 Bases of the Tradition of Non-Use 5 Russia, Britain, France, China, and the Tradition 6 The Second-Generation Nuclear States: Israel, India, Pakistan, and the Tradition 92 124 7 Nonnuclear States, the Tradition, and Limited Wars 143 8 The Tradition and the Nonproliferation Regime 158 9 Changing U.S. Policies and the Tradition 178 197 217 Select Bibliography 277 Index 305 Notes 10 Conclusions 1 Introduction c A knowledgments The idea of wr it ing a book on nuclear non-use first occurred to me in 1990 when as a doctoral student at th