Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector Edited by Fulco Ludwig, Pavel Kabat, Henk van Schaik and Michael van der Valk London • Sterling, VA First published by Earthscan in the UK and USA in 2009 Copyright © Fulco Ludwig, Pavel Kabat, Henk van Schaik and Michael van der Valk, 2009 All rights reserved ISBN: 978-1-84407-652-9 Typeset by FiSH Books, Enfield, Middx. Cover design by Ruth Bateson For a full list of publications please contact: Earthscan Dunstan House 14a St Cross St London EC1N 8XA, UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7841 1930 Fax: +44 (0)20 7242 1474 Email:
[email protected] Web: www.earthscan.co.uk 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166-2012, USA Earthscan publishes in association with the International Institute for Environment and Development A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Climate change adaptation in the water sector/edited by Fulco Ludwig … [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-84407-652-9 (hardback) 1. Climatic changes. 2. Water-supply—Management. I. Ludwig, Fulco, 1972– QC981.8.C5 C51134555 333.91—dc22 2008042257 At Earthscan we strive to minimize our environmental impacts and carbon footprint through reducing waste, recycling and offsetting our CO2 emissions, including those created through publication of this book. For more details of our environmental policy, see www.earthscan.co.uk. This book was printed in the UK by MPG Books, an ISO 14001 accredited company. The paper used is FSC certified and the inks are vegetable based. Contents List of figures, tables, boxes and plates List of contributors Acknowledgements List of acronyms and abbreviations 1 Introduction Fulco Ludwig, Peter Droogers, Michael van der Valk, Henk van Schaik and Pavel Kabat vii xiii xviii xix 1 PART I: CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER 2 The Art of Predicting Climate Variability and Change Bart van den Hurk and Daniela Jacob 9 3 Climate Change Scenarios at the Global and Local Scales Daniela Jacob and Bart van den Hurk 23 4 The Impacts of Climate Change on Water Fulco Ludwig and Marcus Moench 35 5 Managing Water under Current Climate Variability Eelco van Beek 51 6 Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Water Management