Into The Long War: Oxford Research Group International Security Report 2006

Into the Long War Oxford Research Group International Security Report 2006 Paul Rogers Pluto P Press LONDON • ANN ARBOR, MI Rogers 00 pre iii 14/9/06 21:32:47 First published 2007 by Pluto Press 345 Archway Road, London N6 5AA and 839 Greene Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48106 www.plutobooks.com Copyright © Oxford Research Group 2007 The right of Paul Rogers to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Hardback ISBN-13 978 0 7453 2612 2 ISBN-10 0 7453 2612 9 Paperback ISBN-13 978 0 7453 2611 5 ISBN-10 0 7453 2611 0 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data applied for 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Designed and produced for Pluto Press by Chase Publishing Services Ltd, Fortescue, Sidmouth, EX10 9QG, England Typeset from disk by Stanford DTP Services, Northampton, England Printed and bound in the European Union by Antony Rowe Ltd, Chippenham and Eastbourne, England Rogers 00 pre iv 14/9/06 21:32:47 Contents Introduction Acknowledgements Rogers 00 pre v 6 x 1. The Context for a Long War 2. US Options in Iraq – May 2005 3. Iraq, Afghanistan and US Public Opinion – June 2005 4. London, Sharm al-Sheikh and the al-Qaida Movement – July 2005 5. Gaza in Context – August 2005 6. The US Military and the ‘War on Terror’ – September 2005 7. Iraq in a Wider Perspective – October 2005 8. The Politics of War – November 2005 9. Control without the Consequences – December 2005 10. Iraq, Afghanistan and now Iran Once Again – January 2006 11. Iraq, Three Years On – February 2006 12. Iran, Sliding to War? – March 2006 13. From Cold War to Long War – April 2006 14. Endless War? 1 15 85 94 102 110 119 Notes Index 139 157 24 33 43 53 62 70 79 14/9/06 21:32:48 Introduction I n October 2002, Oxford Research Group published an analysis of the possible effects of a US attack on the Saddam Hussein regime – Iraq: Consequences of a War.1 The report pointed to the likely impact of an occupation of Iraq on regional antagonism to the United States extending even to increased support for the al-Qaida movement and also pointed to the risk of a developing insurgency. Oxford Research Group was far from being alone in expressing these concerns, but the war went ahead and the Saddam Hussein regime was terminated in barely three weeks. Within a further few weeks there were already clear signs of developing instability in Iraq, demonstrated in two different ways. One was the immediate deterioration in public order, with the onset of widespread looting that could not be contained by the coalition troops that had replaced the old regime. The other was the outbreak of attacks on the coalition troops themselves, especially US forces in Baghdad and Central Iraq. Even as President Bush was making his famous ‘mission accomplished’ speech on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, on 1 May 2003, American, British and other coalition forces were already involved in counter-insurgency operations. It therefore looked as though the Iraq War was still in its early stages, rather than being a brief conflict, and Afghanistan, too, was experiencing a degree of violence and disorder that suggested that here was another zone of conflict that might not make the transition to peace and security that had been vi Rogers 00 pre vi 14/9/06 21:32:48 INTRODUCTION vii so confidently expected in 2002. In these circumstances, Oxford Research Group commenced a series of International Security Monthly Briefings in May 2003, that were intended to analyse