Simulation: The Practice Of Model Development And Use

Simulation The Practice of Model Development and Use Copyright © 2014. Palgrave Macmillan. All rights reserved. Stewart Robinson Second edition Copyright © 2014. Palgrave Macmillan. All rights reserved. SIMULATION Copyright © 2014. Palgrave Macmillan. All rights reserved. This page intentionally left blank Simulation The Practice of Model Development and Use 2nd edition Stewart Robinson Copyright © 2014. Palgrave Macmillan. All rights reserved. Professor of Management Science, Loughborough University © Stewart Robinson 2014 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2014 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries ISBN 978–1–137–32802–1 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Copyright © 2014. Palgrave Macmillan. All rights reserved. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. Typeset by MPS Limited, Chennai, India. Copyright © 2014. Palgrave Macmillan. All rights reserved. For Jane, Naomi, Martha and Aaron Copyright © 2014. Palgrave Macmillan. All rights reserved. This page intentionally left blank Contents List of Figures xiv List of Tables xvii Preface Copyright © 2014. Palgrave Macmillan. All rights reserved. 1 Defining Simulation: What, Why and When? 1.1 Introduction 1.2 What is Simulation? 1.2.1 Defining Simulation 1.2.2 Simulation Methods 1.3 Why Simulate? 1.3.1 The Nature of Operations Systems: Variability, Interconnectedness and Complexity 1.3.2 The Advantages of Simulation 1.3.3 The Disadvantages of Simulation 1.4 When to Simulate 1.5 Conclusion Exercises Notes References 2 Inside Simulation Software 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Modelling the Progress of Time 2.2.1 The Time-Slicing Approach 2.2.2 The Discrete-Event Simulation Approach (Three-Phase Method) 2.2.3 The Discrete-Event Simulation Approach (Other Methods) 2.2.4 The Continuous Simulation Approach 2.2.5 Summary: Modelling the Progress of Time 2.3 Modelling Variability 2.3.1 Modelling Unpredictable Variability 2.3.2 Random Numbers 2.3.3 Relating Random Numbers to Variability in a Simulation 2.3.4 Modelling Variability in Times and Other Continuous Variables xx 1 1 2 2 5 9 9 13 16 16 17 17 18 18 21 21 22 22 24 34 35 36 36 36 37 38 39 VII Copyright © 2014. Palgrave