Modern Portfolio Management: From Markowitz To Probabilistic Scenario Optimisation

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The financial markets have undergone a period of distress that has strained the trusted relationship between investors and financial advisors; new regulation has been forged to push for higher levels of transparency and risk-based communication as part of investment decision-making. This has ignited the quest for better portfolio optimisation techniques that can combine the added-value asymmetry of real products (as they strongly contributed to pre-crisis budgets) with the life-cycle requirements of investors, supported by intuitive graphical representation of seemingly complex mathematical relationships between real portfolios and products as required by regulation. Upon reading Modern Portfolio Management, readers will understand the importance of simulating real securities (especially fixed income and structured products) during the making of optimal portfolios, as well as the importance of simulating financial investments over time to match in a transparent way actual goals and constraints instead of relying solely upon past performance or personal judgement. Traditional portfolio management approaches have proven to be ineffective. Probabilistic scenario optimisation is emerging as an appealing alternative framework to facilitate the realignment of investors' risk/return preferences with the risk/return characteristics of actual investments. Chapters include: A Modern Risk Management Perspective and The Probability Measure Dealing with Real Securities and Reinvestment Strategies: Fixed Income, Structured Products and Inflation Elicitation and Modeling of Risk/Return Time Profiles Review of Markowitz and Black-Litterman approaches Probabilistic Scenario Optimisation and Goal-based Investing Optimisation Case Studies This book is a must-read for portfolio managers as well as financial advisors - in particular, all investment managers engaging in (or thinking of engaging in) long-term and goal-based asset allocations.

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i i “Sironi” — 2015/1/27 — 15:53 — page i — #1 i i Modern Portfolio Management: from Markowitz to Probabilistic Scenario Optimisation i i i i i i “Sironi” — 2015/1/27 — 15:53 — page ii — #2 i i i i i i i i “Sironi” — 2015/1/27 — 15:53 — page iii — #3 i i Modern Portfolio Management: from Markowitz to Probabilistic Scenario Optimisation Goal-Based and Long-Term Portfolio Choice Paolo Sironi i i i i i i “Sironi” — 2015/1/27 — 15:53 — page iv — #4 i i Published by Risk Books, a Division of Incisive Media Investments Ltd Incisive Media Haymarket House 28–29 Haymarket London SW1Y 4RX Tel: + 44 (0)20 7484 9700 E-mail: [email protected] Sites: www.riskbooks.com www.incisivemedia.com © 2015 Incisive Media Investments Ltd ISBN 978-1-78272-204-5 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Publisher: Nick Carver Commissioning Editor: Sarah Hastings Managing Editor: Lewis O’Sullivan Designer: Lisa Ling Copy-edited and typeset by T&T Productions Ltd, London Printed and bound in the UK by PrintonDemand-Worldwide Conditions of sale All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any material form whether by photocopying or storing in any medium by electronic means whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use for this publication without the prior written consent of the copyright owner except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 or under the terms of a licence issued by the Co