Statistical Methods For Estimating Petroleum Resources (international Association For Mathematical Geology: Studies In Mathematical Geology)

Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources International Association for Mathematical Geology STUDIES IN MATHEMATICAL GEOLOGY 1. William B. Size, Editor Use and Abuse of Statistical Methods in the Earth Sciences 2. Lawrence J. Drew Oil and Gas Forecasting: Reflections of a Petroleum Geologist 3. Ricardo A. Olea, Editor Geostatistical Glossary and Multilingual Dictionary 4. Regina L. Hunter and C. John Mann, Editors Techniques for Determining Probabilities of Geologic Events and Processes 5. John C. Davis and Ute Christina Herzfeld, Editors Computers in Geology—25 Years of Progress 6. George Christakos Modern Spatiotemporal Geostatistics 7. Vera Pawlowsky–Glahn and Ricardo Olea Geostatistical Analysis of Compositional Data 8. P. J. Lee Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ESTIMATING PETROLEUM RESOURCES P. J. Lee 3 2008 1 Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2008 by Oxford University Press, Inc. Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Lee, P. J. Statistical methods for estimating petroleum resources / P.J. Lee. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-19-533190-5 1. Petroleum—Statistics. 2. Petroleum reserves—Statistics. 3. Petroleum industry and trade—Statistics. I. Title. TN871.L374 2008 333.8′23015195—dc22 2007023993 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper Pei-Jen (P.J.) Lee 1934–1999 Oxford University Press mourns the loss of P.J. Lee, scholar, teacher, author, and friend. He completed work on this book just before his untimely death, and we gratefully dedicate it to him in recognition of his lifelong commitment to science. v This page intentionally left blank Foreword to the Series This series, Studies in Mathematical Geology (SMG), is issued under the auspices of the International Association for Mathematical Geology. It was established in 1984 by founding editor Richard B. McCammon to serve as an outlet for book-length contributions on topics of special interest to the geomathematical community and interdisciplinary branches that look to the Association for leadership in the application and use of mathematics in geoscience research and technology. SMG no. 8 describes the underlying statistical concepts and methodology used by the PETRIMES system for petroleum resource assessment. Research on PETRIMES was initiated in 1979 at the Geological Survey of Canada by P. J. Lee, who acknowledged Prof. Gordon Kaufman’s original discovery process model as his inspiration. The manuscript was written in 1999 during Prof. Lee’s tenure at the National Cheng Kung University of Taiwan, shortly before his regrettably early, unexpected death. Originally intended as a text for graduate students, Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources summarizes Prof. Lee’s research on the topic. The PETRIMES system, widely used in the petroleum industry, continues to evolve.