Economy - Energy - Environment Simulation: Beyond The Kyoto Protocol (economy & Environment)

ECONOMY–ENERGY–ENVIRONMENT SIMULATION BEYOND THE KYOTO PROTOCOL Economy & Environment VOLUME 20 Scientific Advisory Board Scott Barrett, London Business School, London, United Kingdom Klaus Conrad, University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany David James, Ecoservices Pty. Ltd., Whale Beach, New South Wales, Australia Bengt J. Kriström, University of Umea, Sweden Raymond Prince, Congressional Budget Office, U.S. Congress, Washington DC, U.S.A. Domenico Siniscalco, ENI-Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italy / University of Torino, Italy The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume. Economy–Energy–Environment Simulation Beyond the Kyoto Protocol Edited by Kimio Uno Faculty of Policy Management Keio University at Shonan Fujisawa Campus, Japan KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS NEW YORK, BOSTON, DORDRECHT, LONDON, MOSCOW eBook ISBN : Print ISBN : 0-306-47549-9 1-4020-0450-8 ©2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers New York, Boston, Dordrecht, London, Moscow Print ©2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht All rights reserved No part of this eBook may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, recording, or otherwise, without written consent from the Publisher Created in the United States of America Visit Kluwer Online at: and Kluwer's eBookstore at: http://kluweronline.com http://ebooks.kluweronline.com Contents Preface vii PART I: INTRODUCTION 1 1. Economy–energy–environment, the COMPASS approach Kimio Uno 3 PART II: THE FRAMEWORK OF ANALYSIS 31 2. Object-oriented database and modelling system 33 Dirk Vanwynsberghe and Frank Hohmann 3. IO, macro-finance, and trade model specification 55 Bernd Meyer and Christian Lutz 4. Endogenized trade shares in a global model Bernd Meyer and Christian Lutz 69 5. Developing an energy balance simulation model 81 Yumiko Umehara PART III: ECONOMY–ENERGY–ENVIRONMENT, 2010 6. Policy agenda Yumiko Umehara 99 101 7. Price-induced energy intensity and inter-energy substitution of G7 countries Yumiko Umehara 8. The case of South-East Asia Dirk Vanwynsberghe, Yumiko Umehara, and Kimio Uno 111 135 vi Contents 9. The case of China 145 Wang Yinchu and Zuo Li 10. The case of Russia 163 Alexey Koltsov and Vladimir Volkov 11. Carbon tax and labour compensation – a simulation for G7 185 Bernd Meyer and Christian Lutz PART IV: METHODOLOGIES 191 12. Energy projections: comparison of methodologies 193 Kimio Uno APPENDIX: A very long-term view of the global community Dirk Vanwynsberghe and Kimio Uno 299 Bibliography 307 COMPASS working papers 321 Notes on contri