The Ozone Layer: A Philosophy Of Science Perspective

The Ozone Layer: A Philosophy of Science Perspective Maureen Christie Cambridge University Press The Ozone Layer The Ozone Layer provides the first thorough and accessible history of stratospheric ozone, from the discovery of ozone in the nineteenth century to current investigations of the Antarctic ozone hole. Drawing directly on the extensive scientific literature, Christie uses the story of ozone as a case study for examining fundamental issues relating to the collection and evaluation of evidence, the conduct of scientific debate and the construction of scientific consensus. By linking key debates in the philosophy of science to an example of real-world science the author not only provides an excellent introduction to the philosophy of science but also challenges many of its preconceptions. This accessible book will interest students and academics concerned with the history, philosophy and sociology of science, as well as having general appeal on this topic of contemporary relevance and concern.        is Lecturer in Philosophy of Science at the University of Melbourne, Australia. This Page Intentionally Left Blank The Ozone Layer A Philosophy of Science Perspective Maureen Christie University of Melbourne PUBLISHED BY CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS (VIRTUAL PUBLISHING) FOR AND ON BEHALF OF THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 IRP 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, USA 477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia http://www.cambridge.org © Maureen Christie 2000 This edition © Maureen Christie 2003 First published in printed format 2000 A catalogue record for the original printed book is available from the British Library and from the Library of Congress Original ISBN 0 521 65072 0 hardback Original ISBN 0 521 65908 6 paperback ISBN 0 511 01400 7 virtual (netLibrary Edition) To the memory of Mary Agnes Christie (14 February 1911 – 17 October 1996) This Page Intentionally Left Blank Contents List of figures List of abbreviations Preface page viii ix xi 1 Introduction 1 Part I: History of the understanding of stratospheric ozone 2 Stratospheric ozone before 1960 9 3 Chlorinated fluorocarbons 17 4 The Supersonic Transport (SST) debate 23 5 Molina and Rowland: chlorine enters the story 29 6 Too much of a good thing? Crucial data backlog in the Antarctic ozone hole discovery 38 7 Antarctic ozone hole – theories and investigations 53 8 Completing the picture: from AAOE to 1994 66 Part II: Philosophical issues arising from the history 9 Prediction in science 10 The crucial experiment 73 93 11 Positive and negative evidence in theory selection 122 12 Branches and sub-branches of science: problems at disciplinary boundaries 149 13 Scientific evidence and powerful computers: new problems for philosophers of science? 159 14 The scientific consensus 169 References Index 205 212 vii Figures 2.1 6.1 6.2 7.1 7.2 9.1 9.2 10.1 10.2 12.1 12.2 12.3 13.1 14.1 viii The ‘Southern anomaly’ in annual ozone variation page 13 Differences between the Southern anomaly and the Antarctic ozone hole (diagrammatic) 47 Comparison of Halley Bay and Syowa data for springtime ozone 48 The ‘smoking gun’ result from the AAOE 62 An ozone/ClO correlation from earlier in the season 63 Expected stratospheric distribution of HCl for low and high sources 81 A possible two dimensional mixing model for source at bottom of equatorial stratosphere 82 Correlations in simple and complex data 1