People, Food And Resources (r.m. Jones Lectures In The Development Of Ideas)

THE R. M. JONES LECTURES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IDEAS People, food and resources The current problems of sub-Saharan peoples who are subject to recurrent famine and shortages of food are only one facet of a wider problem which confronts the peoples of the world. This problem, which is vast in scale, concerns the relationship between the physical and biological resources which the world can muster and the provision of food for the adequate nutrition of its peoples. Overshadowing much of the thought about the future is the theorem propounded by Malthus almost 200 years ago, namely that population, unless checked in some way, has the capacity to outstrip the productivity of the earth in supplying food. Malthus' views are examined in this book and estimates are made of the need to increase and the possibilities of increasing both the nutritional status of the world's population and the production of food and other essentials. The enormous dilemmas that face mankind, the economic arguments that, while apparently logical, pose large moral questions, and the possible role of new scientific advances are outlined. The likely solutions to the many and vexed problems are analysed and the urgency of them emphasised. The book is a definitive account of the problems of meeting world needs for food, both now and in the immediate future, discussed dispassionately and analytically. It is based on public lectures given by the author in the Queen's University of Belfast in 1984. People, food and resources Sir K E N N E T H BLAXTER F . R . S . The right n( ih, Uniu'rsity of Cambridge it> prim and \ttt all manner of hottki not granted hv • Henry I'lH i» 1534 The University has printed and publithrd cttni'muously since I.1M4. CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge New York Port Chester Melbourne Sydney Published by the Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1RP 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, USA 10 Stamford Road, Oakleigh, Melbourne 3166, Australia © Cambridge University Press 1986 First published 1986 Reprinted 1987,1988,1989,1991 Printed in Great Britain at the University Press, Cambridge British Library cataloguing in publication data Blaxter, Sir Kenneth People, food and resources. - (The R. M. Jones Lectures in the development of ideas) 1. Food supply 2. Population I. Title II. Series 338.1'9 HD9000.5 Library of Congress cataloguing in publication data Blaxter, Sir Kenneth People, food and resources. (The R. M. Jones Lectures in the development of ideas) Bibliography; p. Includes index. 1. Food supply. 2. Population. I. Title. II. Series HD9000.5.B514 1986 338.1'9 85-26941 ISBN 0 521 32300 2 CE Contents List of figures List of tables Preface 1 2 INTRODUCTION THE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE Malthus The early criticism James Steuart Malthus' algebra of population growth Predictions from Malthus' equation Current population growth The accuracy of population estimates Death rate, birth rate and the human dilemma Malthus' second assertion Historical data and population cycles Evidence of the principle? Demographic transition Forecasting population Population in the developing countries 3 FOOD AND PEOPLE The means of subsistence The extent of malnutrition Nutritional disease Dietary requirements Recommended dietary allowances and planning page vin ix xi l 4 4 5 8 9 n 14 15 17 19 22 23 2$ 26 28 30 30 31 32 35 37 vi Contents The legacy of misunderstanding Nutritional adaptation Crude estimates of hunger Future food needs 4 5 6 7 38 41 43 44 NUTRIENTS AND COMMODITIES 48 The magnitude of the task Food equity Food and c