Advances In Business And Management Forecasting, Volume 4 (advances In Business And Management Forecasting) (advances In Business And Management Forecasting)

ADVANCES IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT FORECASTING i ADVANCES IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT FORECASTING Series Editors: K.D. Lawrence, M.D. Geurts and J.G. Guerard Jr. Volume 1: Volume 2: Volume 3: Advances in Forecasting: Advances in Forecasting: Business and Management Forecasting Sales Business and Management Forecasting Advances in Business and Management Forecasting ii ADVANCES IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT FORECASTING VOLUME 4 ADVANCES IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT FORECASTING EDITED BY KENNETH D. LAWRENCE School of Management, New Jersey Institute of Technology, USA MICHAEL D. GEURTS Marriott School of Management, Brigham Young University, USA Amsterdam – Boston – Heidelberg – London – New York – Oxford Paris – San Diego – San Francisco – Singapore – Sydney – Tokyo JAI Press is an imprint of Elsevier iii JAI Press is an imprint of Elsevier The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, UK Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, The Netherlands 525 B Street, Suite 1900, San Diego, CA 92101-4495, USA First edition 2006 Copyright r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher Permissions may be sought directly from Elsevier’s Science & Technology Rights Department in Oxford, UK: phone (+44) (0) 1865 843830; fax (+44) (0) 1865 853333; email: [email protected] Alternatively you can submit your request online by visiting the Elsevier web site at http://elsevier.com/locate/permissions, and selecting Obtaining permission to use Elsevier material Notice No responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein. Because of rapid advances in the medical sciences, in particular, independent verification of diagnoses and drug dosages should be made British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN-13: 978-0-7623-1281-8 ISBN-10: 0-7623-1281-5 ISSN: 1477-4070 (Series) For information on all JAI Press publications visit our website at books.elsevier.com Printed and bound in the Netherlands 06 07 08 09 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 iv CONTENTS LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS ix EDITORIAL BOARD xi PART A: FORECASTING AND THE SUPPLY CHAIN FORECASTING IN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT Kenneth D. Lawrence, Sheila M. Lawren