Power Audit Of Eu-russia Relations, A

POLICY PAPER A POWER AUDIT OF EU-RUSSIA RELATIONS Mark Leonard and Nicu Popescu 1 A Power Audit of EU-Russia Relations Mark Leonard and Nicu Popescu This paper, like all publications of the European Council on Foreign Relations, represents not the collective views of the ECFR, but only the views of its authors. PREFACE The European Council on Foreign Relations was founded with a statement that calls on the European Union to develop a foreign policy ‘informed by our shared values, dedicated to the pursuit of our common European interests, and sustained by European power.’ The order of the sentence reflects the fact that EU tends to be at its most comfortable discussing its shared values; it sometimes struggles to define common interests, while it seems almost ashamed to talk about its power. It is for that reason that we decided to make our first report an audit of the power that the Union wields over its most important neighbour, Russia. There have been many papers produced on EU-Russia relations, analysing the policies that the EU should adopt to advance its agenda, but we feel that the main challenge for the Union is its own disunity. The Union urgently needs to develop a new paradigm to manage its relationship with a resurgent and consolidated Russian state. This first ECFR report sets out some initial ideas and analysis which we hope will help spur a debate in national capitals. It will be followed up with more detailed work at policy level. In this project, we have tried to implement some practices which will guide our future activities as the ECFR takes its work into new policy areas. First, we have tried to look at several dimensions of European power. We have explored how Moscow sees the EU and uses its power to influence it; how each member state relates to Russia; as well as the links between Moscow and EU institutions. This report draws on data gathered by a team of researchers from all 27 EU member states. Each conducted a survey of their country’s economic, political and military relations with Russia. Secondly, we have tried to avoid the euphemistic phrases and diplomatic practices that cloak tensions within the EU and between the EU and third countries. In order to promote a common European approach, we have illustrated some of the areas where the policies of individual member states have undercut common European objectives. The goal is not to stigmatise particular countries. Future reports on European foreign policy issues will put the spotlight on the policies of other states. i Thirdly, we have done our best to understand the issues from the perspective of policymakers. A senior EU official complained to one of the authors about the propensity of outside observers to simplify complex issues and to imply that the only thing standing in the way of a successful EU foreign policy is the stupidity of officials. We have tried to heed this plea and have not offered any easy, ready-made solutions. We are grateful to the many officials who have provided us with useful guidance at every step of the research process, in particular those who took part in a round-table discussion of the interim findings, attended by officials from all EU institutions and a majority of EU member states. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Russia has emerged as the most divisive issue in the European Union since Donald Rumsfeld split the European club into ‘new’ and ‘old’ member states. In the 1990s, EU members found it easy to agree on a common approach to Moscow. They coalesced around a strategy of democratising and westernising a weak and indebted Russia. That strategy is now in tatters. Soaring oil and gas prices have made Russia more powerful, less cooperative and above all less interested in joining the west. Although the EU has failed to change Russia during the Putin era, Russia has had a big impact on the EU. On energy, it i