Occupancy Estimation and Modeling Occupancy Estimation and Modeling Inferring Patterns and Dynamics of Species Occurrence Darryl I. MacKenzie James D. Nichols J. Andrew Royle Kenneth H. Pollock Larissa L. Bailey James E. Hines AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG LONDON • NEW YORK • OXFORD PARIS • SAN DIEGO • SAN FRANCISCO SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier Acquisitions Editor: Nancy Maragioglio Project Manager: Jeff Freeland Editorial Assistant: Kelly Sonnack Marketing Managers: Linda Beattie, Philip Pritchard Cover Design: Cate Barr Composition: SNP Best-set Typesetter Ltd., Hong Kong Cover Printer: Phoenix Color Corp. Interior Printer: The Maple-Vail Book Manufacturing Group Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier 30 Corporate Drive, Suite 400, Burlington, MA 01803, USA 525 B Street, Suite 1900, San Diego, California 92101-4495, USA 84 Theobald’s Road, London WC1X 8RR, UK This book is printed on acid-free paper. Copyright © 2006, Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Permissions may be sought directly from Elsevier’s Science & Technology Rights Department in Oxford, UK: phone: (+44) 1865 843830, fax: (+44) 1865 853333, E-mail:
[email protected] You may also complete your request on-line via the Elsevier homepage (http://elsevier.com), by selecting “Customer Support” and then “Obtaining Permissions.” Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Application submitted British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 13: 978-0-12-088766-8 ISBN 10: 0-12-088766-5 For all information on all Elsevier Academic Press publications visit our Web site at www.books.elsevier.com Printed in the United States of America 05 06 07 08 09 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Working together to grow libraries in developing countries www.elsevier.com | www.bookaid.org | www.sabre.org “Without data, all you are is just another person with an opinion.” —Unknown “An approximate answer to the right question is worth a great deal more than a precise answer to the wrong question.” —John Tukey “If a tree falls in the forest, but there is no one there to see it, does it make any noise?” —Zen koan “If a bird sings in the forest, but the investigator fails to detect it, is the forest occupied?” —Evan Cooch Table of Contents Preface xiii 1. Introduction 1.1. Operational Definitions 1.2. Sampling Animal Populations and Communities General Principles Why? What? How? 1.3. Inference about Dynamics and Causation Generation of System Dynamics Statics and Process vs. Pattern 1.4. Discussion 2. Occupancy in Ecological Investigations 2.1. Geographic Range 2.2. Habitat Relationships and Resource Selection 1 2 3 4 5 7 12 12 17 20 25 27 33 vii viii Table of Contents 2.3. Metapopulation Dynamics Inference Based on Single-season Data Inference Based on Multiple-season Data 2.4. Large-scale Monitorin