SPACE WEATHER ASTROPHYSICS AND SPACE SCIENCE LIBRARY VOLUME 344 EDITORIAL BOARD Chairman W.B. BURTON, National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Charlottesville, Virginia, U.S.A. (
[email protected]); University of Leiden, The Netherlands (
[email protected]) MEMBERS F. BERTOLA, University of Padua, Italy; J.P. CASSINELLI, University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA; C.J. CESARSKY, European Southern Observatory, Garching bei München, Germany; P. EHRENFREUND, Leiden University, The Netherlands; O. ENGVOLD, University of Oslo, Norway; A. HECK, Strasbourg Astronomical Observatory, France; E.P.J. VAN DEN HEUVEL, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands; V.M. KASPI, McGill University, Montreal, Canada; J.M.E. KUIJPERS, University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands; H. VAN DER LAAN, University of Utrecht, The Netherlands; P.G. MURDIN, Institute of Astronomy, Cambridge, UK; F. PACINI, Istituto Astronomia Arcetri, Firenze, Italy; V. RADHAKRISHNAN, Raman Research Institute, Bangalore, India; B.V. SOMOV, Astronomical Institute, Moscow State University, Russia; R.A. SUNYAEV, Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia SPACE WEATHER Research Towards Applications in Europe Edited by JEAN LILENSTEN Laboratoire de Planétologie de Grenoble, France A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN-10 ISBN-10 ISBN-13 ISBN-13 1-4020-5445-9 (HB) 1-4020-5446-7 (e-book) 978-1-4020-5445-7 (HB) 978-1-4020-5446-4 (e-book) Published by Springer, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands. www.springer.com Printed on acid-free paper All Rights Reserved © 2007 Springer No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ix Session 1: The Solar Weather/Solar Activity Monitoring and Forecast CHAPTER 1.0. The Solar Weather/Solar Activity Monitoring and Forecast Ronald van der Linden CHAPTER 1.1. Using CME Observations for Geomagnetic Storm Forecasting Andrei N. Zhukov CHAPTER 1.2. Solar Activity Monitoring Peter T. Gallagher, R. T. James McAteer, C. Alex Young, Jack Ireland, Russell J. Hewett and Paul Conlon CHAPTER 1.3. Modeling of Solar Energetic Particles in Interplanetary Space Rami Vainio, Neus Agueda, Angels Aran and David Lario CHAPTER 1.4. Simulating CME Initiation and Evolution: State-of-the-art S. Poedts, B. van der Holst, C. Jacobs, E. Chané, G. Dubey and D. Kimpe CHAPTER 1.5. Signatures of the Ancient Sun Constraining the Early Emergence of Life on Earth M. Messerotti and J. Chela-Flores 1 5 15 27 39 49 Session 2: The Sun’s Interaction with the Earth’s Thermosphere and Climate System CHAPTER 2.0. The Sun’s Interaction with the Earth’s Thermosphere and Climate System A.S. Rodger v 61 vi Table of Contents CHAPTER 2.1. Solar Variability and Climate Joanna D. Haigh 65 CHAPTER 2.2. Influence of Solar Activity Cycles on Earth’s Climate Nigel D. Marsh 83 CHAPTER 2.3. Unravelling Signs of Global Change in the Ionosphere Thomas Ulich, Mark A. Clilverd, Martin J. Jarvis and Henry Rishbeth 95 CHAPTER 2.4. Thermosphere Density Model Calibration Eelco Doornbos CHAPTER 2.5. Numer