the theory that would not die other books by sharon bertsch mcgrayne Prometheans in the Lab: Chemistry and the Making of the Modern World Iron, Nature’s Universal Element: Why People Need Iron and Animals Make Magnets (with Eugenie V. Mielczarek) Nobel Prize Women in Science: Their Lives, Struggles, and Momentous Discoveries the theory that would not die how bayes’ rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down russian submarines, & emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy sharon bertsch mcgrayne new haven & london “The Doctor sees the light” by Michael Campbell is reproduced by permission of John Wiley & Sons; the lyrics by George E. P. Box in chapter 10 are reproduced by permission of John Wiley & Sons; the conversation between Sir Harold Jeffreys and D. V. Lindley in chapter 3 is reproduced by permission of the Master and Fellows of St. John’s College, Cambridge. Copyright © 2011 by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne. All rights reserved. This book may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, including illustrations, in any form (beyond that copying permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law and except by reviewers for the public press), without written permission from the publishers. Yale University Press books may be purchased in quantity for educational, business, or promotional use. For information, please e-mail
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[email protected] .uk (U.K. office). Designed by Lindsey Voskowsky. Set in Monotype Joanna type by Duke & Company, Devon, Pennsylvania. Printed in the United States of America. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data McGrayne, Sharon Bertsch. The theory that would not die : how Bayes’ rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down Russian submarines, and emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy / Sharon Bertsch McGrayne. p. cm. Summary: “Bayes’ rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes’ rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions su