What are the origins of chance? Although its existence has long been accepted as a fact, the theory of probability only allows us to examine the random events produced by chance without enabling us to determine what creates it – and this despite knowing that living systems (from the cell to organisms, populations, communities and ecosystems) need chance to survive. In this book on living systems, we identify two origins: one external, coming from the environment, and the other, internal, produced by biological mechanisms that are molecular as well as cellular, demographic and ecological. These internal mechanisms – veritable “biological roulettes” - are similar to the mechanical devices that bring about “physical chance”. They are at once the products and the engines of evolution and they also generate biodiversity, often in response to the vagaries of the environment. By creating biodiversity, these biological roulettes act as a kind of a life insurance that, on an evolutionary scale, ensure that life will continue after great upheaval: within the wide variety of organisms, there are some that are potentially adapted to new environmental conditions. From among those that survive, a new living world will grow and diversify. By examining biodiversity at all scales and all levels, this book seeks to evaluate the breadth of our knowledge on this topical subject; to propose an integrated look at living things; and to assess the role of chance in the dynamics of biodiversity, from populations to ecosystems and the biosphere, and more generally in evolutionary processes. Finally, it suggests that by simultaneously examining the mechanisms of diversification, maintenance and extinction, we can model the dynamics of biodiversity to better understand it and predict its variations and, thus, to foresee the practical aspects for managing living systems.
On the Origins and Dynamics of Biodiversity: the Role of Chance Translated from the French by Andrea Dejean Updated and expanded English version of: La nécessité du Hasard – Vers une théorie synthétique de la biodiversité (EDP Sciences, 2007, Les Ulis, France) Alain Pavé On the Origins and Dynamics of Biodiversity: the Role of Chance 123 Alain Pavé University of Lyon and CNRS montee de Verdun 34 69160 Tassin-la-Demi-Lune Lyon, France
[email protected] ISBN 978-1-4419-6243-0 e-ISBN 978-1-4419-6244-7 DOI 10.1007/978-1-4419-6244-7 Springer New York Dordrecht Heidelberg London Library of Congress Control Number: 2010928123 © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2010 All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the written permission of the publisher (Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 233 Spring Street, New York, NY 10013, USA), except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis. Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed is forbidden. The use in this publication of trade names, trademarks, service marks, and similar terms, even if they are not identified as such, is not to be taken as an expression of opinion as to whether or not they are subject to proprietary rights. Cover illustration: biodiversity as decoration (silk fabric – Musée des tissus – Lyon, France) Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) However unlikely it may seem, no one, until that time, had attempted to produce a general theory of gaming. Babylonians are not a speculative people; they obey the dictates of chance, surrender their lives, their hopes,